March 31 (Bloomberg) -- The parallels between Barack Obama and Michael Nutter are striking: bright, Ivy League educated, politically successful, relatively young African-Americans with a pragmatically progressive policy bent.

Both lost races -- Obama for Congress, Nutter for city council -- and later came from the back of the pack to overcome better-known candidates and win bigger prizes: Obama to the U.S. Senate and Nutter elected as mayor of Philadelphia last year.

With Pennsylvania's important presidential primary three weeks away, Nutter's choice isn't what you might expect: ``I talked to both the candidates about education, public safety, jobs, economic opportunity,'' the mayor of America's sixth- largest city recalls. ``I think Senator Clinton is the best to lead the country.''

Nutter, who became mayor in January, is a reminder of the pitfalls of political stereotyping. There are prominent blacks for Hillary Clinton and prominent whites for Obama, and it has little to do with race.

One of America's best political analysts, the late Alan Baron, loved to cite the following facts: between 1936 and 1984 the city that voted the most Democratic in presidential elections was Cleveland; the religious group whose members were most dependable for the party was Jewish; and the professionals most loyal were labor union presidents.

So why, Baron asked in 1987, was the only Jewish labor union president from Cleveland -- Jackie Presser of the Teamsters -- a Republican?

`Clinton Fan'

To be sure, there are special dynamics in Pennsylvania. Obama, 46, endorsed the frontrunner in Philadelphia's 2007 mayoral primary. And almost 20 years ago, Nutter, who was an investment banker before going into politics, became interested in the centrist Democratic Leadership Council then spearheaded by Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.

``I've been a (Bill) Clinton fan for a long time,'' the 50-year-old chief executive of Philadelphia declares.

There's no reason to question the sincerity of his commitment.

Nutter endorsed Senator Clinton, 60, in December when it hardly created a ripple. Then she was expected to wrap up the Democratic presidential nomination by Feb. 5 if not sooner; no one thought Pennsylvania would matter.

Even though the situation has changed, Nutter has no regrets: ``This is not the Martin Luther King oratorical contest,'' he says, citing one of Obama's greatest strengths. ``It's a contest for president of the United States.''

Hyped Speech

He expresses mixed feelings about the way race has become an issue and how Obama has handled the incendiary comments of his pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

Obama's speech on race two weeks ago in Philadelphia, he suggests, has been hyped. ``It was a good political speech,'' Nutter says. ``But this was a political speech in a political campaign for a political purpose. Do you think it would have been given if not for the Reverend Wright?''

And he's skeptical that Obama's stated desire to spark a national conversation about race means much. ``There was a conversation for maybe a day or two and then we moved onto other issues,'' he says. It takes the bully pulpit of a president, he argues, to generate a dialogue about such a sensitive subject.

Nutter also takes issue with Obama supporters who claim that Wright, however offensive some of his speeches, typifies church leaders in many black communities: ``I've been to a lot of black churches, and I've never heard something like that; it's at a different level. If I'd been going to that church, I wouldn't be going anymore.''

Heavyweights Split

That seems more a political jab, as Nutter's competitive juices are flowing in this contest. Two of the state's heavyweights have split, with Governor Ed Rendell going all out for Clinton and Senator Bob Casey embracing Obama last week.

Nutter is enormously popular in his city, which both sides agree will be important in shaping the outcome of the popular and delegate votes in Pennsylvania.

Philadelphia could comprise almost 20 percent of the statewide vote next month, and more than half of the city's electorate in the Democratic primary will be black.

Clinton, both sides agree, is a strong favorite to win the primary statewide. She is so far behind Obama in pledged delegates, however, that she needs to carry it big, winning the popular vote by more than 10 points and picking up a net 10 delegates or more. To do that, she needs to be competitive in Philadelphia.

Slim chance

Then to have an even chance at the nomination, several more things would have to occur: a) two weeks after Pennsylvania, she has to win Indiana, as her campaign expects, and pull an upset in North Carolina; b) she must consistently run better against Republican John McCain in general election polls; and c) Obama's problems must dominate the news.

Today, Clinton doesn't run any better than her opponent in the polls against McCain, and last week the flap over her misrepresenting the danger she faced in Bosnia overshadowed any lingering fallout from the Obama/Wright issue.

Thus, one of the most knowledgeable Clinton political strategists puts the odds of her capturing the nomination at 10 percent.

Pennsylvania illustrates this challenge. If, as the Obama camp expects, a huge black vote in Philadelphia enables him to carry the city by almost 2-to-1, he's likely to win 10 or 11 of the 16 delegates at stake in the city. That would make her challenge for double-digit victories in the popular vote and in delegates gained almost impossible.

`Hope' Candidate

Nutter insists she'll do better in Philadelphia and says even a Clinton victory there ``is not impossible.''

Two experiences of these remarkable black politicians make that seem unlikely. In the 2004 Illinois Senate Democratic primary, Obama -- running against a formidable political machine and an establishment white candidate -- carried about 85 percent of the black vote in Chicago.

Last year, Nutter won his surprise victory in Philadelphia's Democratic primary by running as the candidate of change who offered ``hope.''

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 30, 2008 10:01 EDT