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Democrats Lead on Economy, Immigration, Energy in Swing States

By Matthew Benjamin


Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats are getting a boost from voters on the big issues of the midterm congressional elections: the economy, the war in Iraq and unhappiness with President George W. Bush's leadership, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll.

With the elections less than two weeks away, the poll of voters in five battleground states shows voters with a moderate- to-strong preference for Democrats on most issues except terrorism, where Republicans still hold a small edge.

Majorities in each state -- Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee, New Jersey and Missouri -- disapprove of the job Bush is doing, and say the country needs to move in a new direction. Democrats score better than Republicans on handling the economy, taxes, gasoline prices and immigration.

The five states feature some of the nation's most competitive House and Senate races. Taken together, voters in the five battlegrounds voted for Bush in 2004 by a slightly bigger margin than those in the nation as a whole.

The pro-Democratic tilt on issues ``suggests that Republicans' troubles run much deeper than just a few swing states,'' said Amy Walter, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter in Washington. ``For Republicans hoping that their base and their voters rally in these last two weeks, it doesn't seem to be happening.''

While battleground voters favored the Democrats on most issues, their states' partisan preferences are still evident in the poll findings.

Democratic Edge

In strongly Democratic New Jersey and in swing-state Ohio, respondents give a clear edge to the Democrats on issues such as Iraq, the economy, taxes, gasoline prices, and immigration; in traditionally Republican Missouri and Tennessee, Republicans fare better with voters than they do in other states. Respondents in Virginia, which has been a Republican stronghold, are in the middle but trending toward the Democrats.

Kenny Buchhold, a Virginia voter from Midlothian and a self- described independent, said he no longer trusts Republicans more to defend the nation. ``They bungled the mission in Afghanistan, and Iraq was folly to begin with,'' said the 42-year-old computer consultant, a respondent in the poll who was contacted for a follow-up interview.

The poll of 2,314 likely voters in the five states was taken Oct. 20 to Oct. 23. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points in Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee, plus or minus 5 percentage points in Virginia, and plus or minus 5.5 percentage points in New Jersey.

Clobbered on Economy

Republicans are getting clobbered by voters on the question of which party can best handle the economy even as the stock market hits record highs, gasoline prices plunge and the unemployment rate stands at a five-year-low.

Voters in all five states said the economy is worse off because of the Bush's policies of the past six years. In New Jersey, 53 percent of respondents said worse, versus 26 percent who said better. In Missouri, the margin narrowed to 41 percent to 33 percent.

While a sharp reduction in gasoline prices -- down 83 cents a gallon since early August -- has boosted consumers' disposable income, Republicans haven't reaped a discernible benefit. Voters surveyed in all five swing states said Democrats would do a better job of dealing with high fuel prices, and several respondents said in interviews that they view the decline in prices as just a ploy to boost Republicans' chances on Nov. 7.

Big Oil

``After the elections are over, the oil companies are going to have free rein again,'' said Denzil Norrod, 59, a retired auto-body repairman from Huber Heights, Ohio.

Republican candidates are having trouble making their charge that Democrats would hammer American families with new tax hikes stick.

Voters in Ohio, New Jersey, and Virginia say Democrats would do a better job handling taxes than Republicans. The two parties came in about even in Missouri and Tennessee.

While the national unemployment rate remains historically low, at 4.6 percent in September, it is higher in several of the battleground states, including New Jersey and Missouri. Ohio, with a 5.2 percent unemployment rate, has lost 152,000 non-farm jobs since Bush took office in January, 2001. While some new jobs were added in the service sector, about 195,000 manufacturing jobs disappeared during that period.

Tough on Immigration

House Republicans charged into the midterm elections portraying themselves as getting tough with undocumented immigrants. In these five states, the voters prefer Democrats on the issue, though the margin was a statistically insignificant 2 percentage points in Missouri. That may suggest that the issue is only helping rally Republicans' base voters rather than winning converts.

``We have a problem with illegal immigrants'' that Congress isn't addressing, said Susan Lewis, of King City, Missouri. The 44-year-old teacher and self-described independent voter favors tougher enforcement of current immigration laws and plans to vote mostly for Democratic candidates.

On Iraq, respondents in Ohio, New Jersey, and Virginia thought Democrats would do a better job, while voters in Tennessee gave a slight edge to the Republicans.

At the same time, respondents in all five states agreed that the situation in Iraq wasn't worth going to war over. The margin was greatest in New Jersey, 73 percent to 21 percent, and smallest in Tennessee, with a margin of 50 percent to 45 percent.

Most respondents in Missouri and Tennessee agreed with Bush that the Iraq conflict is part of the global struggle against international terrorism, while majorities in Ohio, New Jersey and Virginia saw the war as separate from the anti-terror fight.

Views on Iraq

A plurality of voters in four of five battlegrounds agreed with Bush that U.S. troops should stay in Iraq ``as long as it takes'' to stabilize the country. In New Jersey nearly as many said the U.S. should ``get out now.''

In recent weeks, Democrats and Republicans have traded charges over which party is responsible for North Korea's move to develop nuclear weapons. Voters in Ohio blamed the Bush administration, while those in Missouri blamed former President Bill Clinton. The other three states were closely divided about who was more at fault.

Looking at the overall poll results, ``the message that it's all the Republicans' fault and that Democrats deserve a chance to do better is working,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the Washington-based Rothenberg Political Report.

That message is finding a hearing even with poll respondents like Joey Franks, a 31-year-old hospital worker from Savannah, Tennessee, who described himself as a lifelong Republican. ``I'm so sick of the Republicans that I'm ready to give the Democrats a shot at things,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Benjamin in Washington at mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 24, 2006 20:00 EDT

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