By Frances Robinson
June 9 (Bloomberg) -- German exports fell more than economists forecast in April as the global crisis restrained demand, keeping Europe’s largest economy mired in a recession.
Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, fell 4.8 percent from March, when they rose a revised 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected a 0.1 percent decline in April, according to the median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
German companies from chemical makers to car manufacturers have seen demand fall as the global economy contracts. While Bundesbank President Axel Weber said June 5 that central bank policy has helped to slow the pace of the economic slump, the outlook “remains uncertain.” Volkswagen AG’s Audi division said yesterday it may need to push back a 2015 sales target as customers withhold purchases of luxury vehicles.
“The collapse of exports at the beginning of the year was a huge burden on economic activity,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “Despite some recent signs of stabilization of the economy, it is far too early for exaggerated optimism.”
Trade Surplus Narrows
German imports dropped 5.8 percent in April from the previous month, when they increased a revised 0.2 percent, the statistics office said. The trade surplus narrowed to 9.4 billion euros ($13.1 billion) from 11.3 billion euros.
The surplus in the current account, the measure of all trade including services, was 5.8 billion euros, down from a revised 11.0 billion euros.
The European Central Bank has cut its key interest rate to a record low of 1 percent and pledged to buy 60 billion euros of covered bonds starting next month in an effort to revive lending. President Jean-Claude Trichet said on June 4 that he expects the slump in the euro-area economy to ease in the current quarter after a “sharp fall in global demand and trade” affected the region in the first quarter.
In the first four months of 2009, exports fell 28.7 percent compared with the same period last year, while imports dropped 22.9 percent, today’s report said.
In April, exports to all EU countries fell by 29.9 percent, while exports to EU countries outside the euro area plunged by 32.2 percent.
“The world is still adjusting to the burst of the credit boom and this kind of hangover won’t be gone in a couple of months,” said Thorsten Polleit, chief German economist at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt. “The global economy is still lackluster.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Frances Robinson in Frankfurt at frobinson6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 9, 2009 05:43 EDT
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