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Asia Must Mull Exit From Stimulus Carefully, Lim Says (Update1)

By Shamim Adam and Valarie Tan

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Asian economies, which are forecast to emerge faster from the global recession than other regions, need to study their stimulus exit strategies “carefully,” Singapore Trade Minister Lim Hng Kiang said.

The 21-members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, whose leaders are gathering in Singapore this week, are at various stages of recovery and will have differing timeframes to remove stimulus measures, Lim said in an interview yesterday. A premature withdrawal of such policies will choke off growth, said Rajat Nag, managing director of the Asian Development Bank.

“In case global and local economies do not see broad-based entrenched growth, then governments everywhere have to keep their feet on the pedals to sustain the recovery,” said Song Seng-Wun, an economist at CIMB-GK Securities Pte in Singapore.

Policy makers are moving to unwind some of the emergency steps they took to counter the world recession after cutting interest rates and pumping more than $2 trillion in government spending. The Group of 20 nations last week outlined a timetable to rebalance the global economy, mapping exit strategies from the stimulus.

“Asia cannot be completely decoupled from the world and therefore we have to do so carefully to make sure we don’t cause more disruptions,” Lim said. “It’s important for us to sit together and brief each other about our economic conditions.”

Some economies such as the U.S. and Japan may need to maintain a “benevolent environment,” while others may find it hard to continue “too-loose” monetary conditions, Lim said.

Australia Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates twice this quarter, while central banks including India’s and South Korea’s have signaled a readiness to raise borrowing costs in the coming months.

Growth in industrialized economies and Asia is “still fragile” even as policy makers are “absolutely correct” in their concerns that stimulus measures may stoke inflation, the ADB’s Nag said in an interview in New Delhi yesterday.

“It is time to start thinking about it, and it needs to be done in a coordinated rather than an abrupt withdrawal,” Nag said. “Our focus has to be on growth, keeping a watch on inflation.”

Singapore will host the summit of APEC leaders on Nov. 14 and Nov. 15, which is expected to focus on “longer-term” issues such as promoting trade and market opening as the group’s members emerge from recession, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said last week.

Bogor Goals

APEC members, whose economies account for more than half of global gross domestic product, in 1994 signed the “Bogor Declaration” pledging to create free and open trade in the group’s developed economies by 2010 and in its emerging economies by 2020. Lee said Nov. 3 that next year’s target is not likely to be met.

“The Bogor goals are set on a very broad and very ambitious level,” Lim said. “We see that as an aspirational goal. If you look at the various parameters, APEC economies have done very well in reaching for that aspirational goal.”

He said APEC economies have lowered overall tariff rates to 5 percent from 17 percent since 1989. APEC members, including the U.S., China, Russia and Japan, account for about 44 percent of world trade, according to the organization’s Web site.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 9, 2009 20:44 EST

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