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Hall of NBER Sees `Conclusive' Evidence of U.S. Recession

By Steve Matthews

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Stanford University economist who leads the panel that dates economic cycles said there is now no doubt that a recession is under way following today's jobs report.

The committee is waiting to determine the exact start date of a contraction.

``The evidence is more than compelling,'' Robert Hall, who leads the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee, said in an interview. ``It's conclusive, in my personal opinion.''

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 6.5 percent last month, the highest level since 1994, the Labor Department reported today. The U.S. has lost more than half a million jobs in two months.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based bureau, the official arbiter of when U.S. expansions begin and end, defines a recession as a ``significant'' decrease in activity over a sustained period of time. The decline would be visible in gross domestic product, payrolls, production, sales and incomes.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Matthews in Atlanta at smatthews@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 7, 2008 10:54 EST

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