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U.S. Import Prices Fall 1.1%; Excluding Oil Down 0.8% (Update1)

By Bob Willis

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell in January for a sixth consecutive month on lower commodity costs and slumping demand as the global economic slowdown intensified.

The import-price index decreased 1.1 percent, the smallest drop since it last rose in July, after a revised 5 percent drop in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Prices from a year earlier slumped 12.5 percent, the most since records began in 1982.

Weakening U.S. demand has spread to Europe and Asia, causing companies such as Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. to cut prices as manufacturers work down inventories. Falling costs have raised concern among some Federal Reserve officials that deflation might take root, worsening the downturn.

“Import prices still have downside pressures as the global economy slows,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “Although deflation is a risk, the benefits of a concerted effort by global policy makers will likely keep those risks low.”

Import prices in January were forecast to fall 1.2 percent after an initially reported 4.2 percent drop the prior month, according to the median estimate of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Forecasts ranged from declines of 4.2 percent to a gain of 1.2 percent.

Prices excluding petroleum dropped declined 0.8 percent in January from a month earlier.

Revive Economy

U.S. stock-index futures gained, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from a three-month low, on speculation President Barack Obama’s plan to stem home foreclosures will help revive the economy. Futures on the S&P 500 Index expiring in March advanced 0.6 percent to 790.6 as of 8:24 a.m. in New York.

Compared with a year earlier, prices of imported goods dropped a record 12.5 percent following a 10.3 percent year-over- year decrease in the prior month. Excluding all fuels, import expenses were down 0.6 percent in the 12 months to January.

The import-price index is the first of three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department. The index of wholesale prices is due tomorrow, and the consumer price gauge will be released on Feb. 20. Both are forecast to rise 0.3 percent after recent declines, according to the survey.

Imported Petroleum

The price of imported petroleum and petroleum products decreased 2.4 percent after four months of double-digit declines, today’s the report showed. Prices were down 55 percent from a year earlier.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard yesterday said in a speech in New York that the U.S. faces a risk of “sustained deflation” and called on the central bank to avert a decline in prices by expanding the money supply.

Crude oil futures, which peaked at $147 a barrel in July, traded at $34.83 a barrel earlier today on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Food import prices were unchanged in January after a 2.2 percent increase the prior month. Imported food was 3.3 percent more expensive than a year earlier.

Trade is shrinking as demand slumps. The U.S. trade deficit fell 4 percent in December to the narrowest in almost six years as both imports and exports fell, the Commerce Department said Feb. 10. The gap shrank to $39.9 billion from a revised $41.6 billion in November, with imports falling to their lowest level in three years.

Export Prices

U.S. export prices increased 0.5 percent last month, the first increase in six months, the Labor Department said. Prices of farm exports gained 6.2 percent, the first increase in four months, while those of non-farm exports were unchanged from the prior month.

Prices of imported automobiles, parts and engines rose 0.2 percent, and costs for imported consumer goods excluding autos were unchanged. Prices for industrial supplies were down 3.9 percent, the sixth straight decline.

Demand for both domestic and foreign automobiles remains weak. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest automaker, posted a 32 percent decline in U.S. sales in January, Honda Motor Co. fell 28 percent and Nissan Motor Co. fell 30 percent.

Prices of capital goods were unchanged last month from December, the report showed.

South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest maker of memory chips, liquid-crystal displays and televisions, last month reported its first quarterly loss as the global recession drove down prices.

“Panel price significantly dropped because set makers adjusted inventories,” said Cho Yeongduk, vice president for LCD business at Samsung, on a Jan. 22 conference call.

Prices of goods from China were down 0.7 percent, those from Latin America fell 2.1 percent and imports from the European Union cost 0.1 percent more. The cost of Canadian goods fell 0.9 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 18, 2009 08:45 EST

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