Bloomberg Anywhere Bloomberg Professional About Bloomberg


 
ECB Adds Cash for Third Day, Says Market Normalizing (Update10)

By Christian Vits

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank lent emergency money to banks for a third day, while paring the amount and declaring that markets are returning to normal.

The ECB loaned 47.7 billion euros ($65 billion) to banks, down from 61.05 billion euros on Aug. 10. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and Australia's central bank today resumed normal refinancing operations and refrained from providing extra funds.

The ECB, the Fed and other central banks injected $154 billion into money markets on Aug. 9 and $135.7 billion on Aug. 10 amid fears that U.S. subprime mortgage losses will curtail lending. Stocks rallied worldwide and U.S. index futures advanced as concern about a squeeze on credit abated.

``The situation is gradually normalizing,'' said Jose Luis Alzola, director of economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets in London. ``However, fears will subside gradually rather than quickly.''

The overnight rate at which banks lend euros to each other fell to as low as 3.95 percent from 4.16 percent earlier today. It spiked to 4.62 percent on Aug. 9, a six-year high. The ECB's benchmark refinancing rate is 4 percent.

The euro dropped to $1.3626 at 12:39 p.m. in New York from $1.3693 before the ECB's first announcement today. European government bonds fell as the risk of owning corporate debt declined and stocks rebounded. The yield on the 10-year German bund, Europe's benchmark, rose 3 basis points to 4.37 percent in London.

Europe's Vulnerability

Credit-market turmoil worsened last week after European banks acknowledged their vulnerability to rising defaults on American subprime mortgages.

BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, was forced to halt withdrawals from three of its investment funds. Just the week before, BNP Chief Executive Officer Baudouin Prot said the bank wasn't at risk.

Germany's government had to organize a rescue package for IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG as the Dusseldorf-based bank unveiled potential losses of as much as 3.5 billion euros. NIBC Bank NV in the Netherlands posted losses from U.S. credit investments.

In the U.S., American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. last week became the country's second-biggest home lender to file for bankruptcy. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said it faces ``unprecedented disruptions'' that may hurt profit.

`Normalizing'

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and investors including C.V. Starr and Perry Capital LLC will invest $3 billion in the firm's Global Equity Opportunities Fund after it fell 28 percent in August.

``We believe the current values that the market is assigning to the assets underlying various funds represent a discount that is not supported by the fundamentals,'' New York-based Goldman said today in a statement.

The Frankfurt-based ECB said today that ``money market conditions are normalizing.''

Central banks in South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, India and Malaysia have said they are prepared to add cash to their systems if required to prevent a squeeze on credit. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today said it was ``business as usual'' in its conduct of daily operations.

The International Monetary Fund said last week that ``prompt action'' by central banks to add cash to the banking system should help avert a crisis in credit markets.

Raised Forecasts

``While the situation is still evolving, we continue to believe that the systemic consequences of the re-assessment of credit risk that is taking place will be manageable,'' the IMF said.

The IMF said on July 25 that growth in Europe, Japan and emerging markets including China and India is proving stronger than expected, compensating for a weaker U.S. economy. The fund predicted the global economy will expand 5.2 percent in 2007 and 2008, more than the 4.9 percent it forecast in April.

Recent market turbulence ``won't have much of an impact on the economy,'' said Matthew Sharratt, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in London. ``Therefore, the ECB will increase interest rates in September to 4.25 percent and probably keep this level for the rest of the year.''

The ECB has raised its benchmark rate eight times since December 2005, to a six-year high of 4 percent, and signaled on Aug. 2 that it plans to raise borrowing costs again next month to keep price increases in check.

Rate Bets

Turmoil on credit markets has prompted investors to reduce bets on interest-rate increases by central banks in most industrialized countries, futures trading shows.

The chance of the Bank of Japan increasing borrowing costs at its meeting next week was at 32 percent today compared with 75 percent on Aug. 9, according to calculations by Credit Suisse Group.

In Europe, investors reduced expectations for higher rates in the U.K. and in the 13-nation euro area. Traders see an 84 percent chance the ECB will raise rates in September, down from 90 percent on Aug. 8.

They have also abandoned bets, made a month ago, on two rate increases from the Bank of England by the end of the year even though the U.K. has been alone among central banks in the Group of Seven in not pushing additional liquidity into the market.

Meanwhile, the U.S. might be the first G-7 country to lower interest rates again. U.S. federal funds futures indicate investors are betting the Fed will cut its target rate of 5.25 percent by a quarter percentage-point at its Sept. 18 meeting.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Vits in Frankfurt cvits@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 13, 2007 12:54 EDT

Sponsored links