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Brown Urges G-20 to Avoid ‘Dangerous’ Early Exit From Stimulus

By Reed V. Landberg and Emma Ross-Thomas

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged the Group of 20 nations to maintain stimulus measures for their economies, saying the global recovery from the worst recession in six decades “hangs in the balance.”

“It would be dangerous to put recovery at risk by suddenly cutting off the funding and investment,” the British premier said in a speech to G-20 finance ministers in St. Andrews, Scotland today. “We need to stick with the policies that have helped stabilize our economies this year and are underpinning the recovery.”

Officials want to avoid derailing the recovery by withdrawing the stimulus too soon or by leaving it so long that the resulting debt spooks investors into pushing up market interest rates. The International Monetary Fund says the debt ratio of the advanced G-20 nations could be 40 percentage points above the pre-crisis level by 2014, threatening to push up borrowing costs as much as 2 percentage points.

“A credible medium term plan to cut deficits is needed to tackle shortfalls in public finances that have resulted from reduced tax yields and the vital actions taken to prevent a global depression,” Brown said.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen 139 basis points to 3.5 percent since the start of the year.

The fragility of the rebound was exposed yesterday by a report showing the U.S. unemployment rate soared to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October.

Geithner, Trichet

The call from Brown and Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling for continued action is likely to find support when G-20 finance ministers and central bankers including U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet release a statement after their talks conclude about 3 p.m.

“This is not a self-sustained recovery,” Swedish Finance Anders Borg told Bloomberg Television yesterday in St. Andrews. The G-20 must continue “expansionary policies for a substantial time period.”

The G-20, which accounts for about 85 percent of the global economy, may also discuss a possible tax on financial transactions, Brown said, as he laid out the conditions that would have to govern any such levy. He insisted the measure would have to be applied globally and not distort markets.

“Let me be clear: Britain will not move unless others move with us,” he said.

Climate Change

Also on the agenda are discussions on how to fund policies to tackle climate change after the European Union estimated developing countries will need 100 billion euros ($148 billion) a year by 2020.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday the G-20 would try to “at least make a little step forward in the area of financing climate protection.”

Doubts are growing as to whether a full agreement can be reached at a United Nations summit in Copenhagen next month. Yvo de Boer, the UN supervisor for climate talks, said in a Nov. 5 interview that too little progress has been made to conclude a treaty at the summit, and it may take another year. European Commission President Jose Barroso said Nov. 3 “there’s not time” to reach a treaty agreement ahead of the summit. The EU and U.S. have yet to say how much aid they may give.

Urgency

Darling said he wants “commitment and urgency” on climate change, even amid diverging views.

“I am aware that around this table there are some different views,” he said. “It will be difficult negotiating.”

Divisions also emerged yesterday over exchange rates as Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan deflected calls from European and Japanese officials to let its currency appreciate. Zhou said in an interview yesterday that “the pressure from the international community to allow yuan appreciation is not that big.”

His comments came after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said an “orderly and progressive appreciation” of currencies including the yuan would be “welcome.”

China has kept a lid on its currency since July 2008, making it track the dollar lower as the U.S. currency lost 15 percent against a basket of currencies since March. Japanese Vice Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said yesterday it’s “desirable for the yuan to be flexible.”

Carlo Bozotti, chief executive officer of STMicroelectronics NV welcomed European policy makers’ moves to talk down the euro currency, saying on Oct. 21 that “the dollar is too weak.” Sanofi-Aventis Chief Executive Officer Chris Viehbacher said the weaker dollar is a “problem” for France’s largest drugmaker, while Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said last month the strength of the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart was a risk to growth.

Yuan forwards rose this week, with the twelve-month non- deliverable security rising 0.3 percent to 6.6305 per dollar, signalling appreciation of 3 percent. The contracts rose 0.4 percent this week.

To contact the reporters on this story: Reed Landberg in St. Andrews at landberg@bloomberg.net; Emma Ross-Thomas in St. Andrews at at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 7, 2009 06:46 EST