
Commentary by John Dorfman
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- A stock that is rising while most are falling may be worth a look.
If that stock is also inexpensive and has a good balance sheet, it might be an opportunity.
Last week, using Bloomberg software, I screened the 1,798 U.S. stocks with a market value of $500 million or more. Only 108 of them had advanced 10 percent or more between mid-June and mid-July. In that span the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell about 4 percent.
I searched among those gainers for stocks that had debt less than stockholders’ equity, and that sold for 15 times earnings or less. That narrowed the field to a mere 11 stocks, or less than 1 percent of the original group.
Those stocks are on the march, and yet remain inexpensive. They include the following:
-- Amgen Inc., the world’s largest biotechnology company, rose 17 percent from June 12 (when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit its high for the year) through July 17.
-- J. M. Smucker Co., which makes the jam you might have slathered on your toast this morning. It rose 12 percent in the same time frame, including reinvested dividends.
-- Steelcase Inc., which makes the desks and filing cabinets in your office, or the office you used to work in. Its total return was 12 percent.
Greeting Cards
-- American Greetings Corp., which sold that ever-so- slightly off-color greeting card you sent to your uncle. It gained 76 percent during the period.
-- Raymond James Financial Inc., a brokerage house and money manager, is up 3 percent since June 12.
I don’t know the other six stocks as well. For the record, they are Ameron International Corp., Comtech Telecommunications Corp., Del Monte Foods Co., Parexel International Corp., Regency Energy Partners LP, and Teletech Holdings Inc.
Here are thoughts on the five stocks in the group on which I can contribute some perspective.
Amgen’s stock jumped 14 percent -- the most in four years - - on July 8 after releasing results of a clinical trial showing the effectiveness of its bone strengthening medicine denosumab. The study dealt with breast cancer patients whose illness had spread to their bones.
The Thousand Oaks, California-based company already has a cabinet full of drugs, including Epogen and Aranesp for anemia, Enbrel for arthritis and Neulasta for boosting white-blood-cell counts. The company had annual sales exceeding $15 billion last year.
Christmas in July
I own a biotechnology stock about as often as it snows in July. Their valuations are usually way beyond my limits.
I have never owned Amgen and am not likely to buy it even now because its price-to-book and price-to-revenue ratios are high. If you’re not as cheap as I am, though, this might be a good time to buy. Amgen is selling for only 13 times earnings, in contrast to a six-year average multiple of 23.
J. M. Smucker, located in Orrville, Ohio, makes not only Smuckers jam but also Jif peanut butter, Folgers coffee, shortening, frosting, frozen sandwiches and many other food products. In its latest fiscal year, which ended in April, the company posted revenue of $3.8 billion, compared with $602.5 million a decade earlier.
Desks and Preserves
In its fourth quarter Smuckers posted earnings of $1.02 per share, tying the company high-water mark set two quarters previously. Investors lapped that up. Not many companies are reporting near-record profits these days. At 13 times earnings and 1.2 times book value (corporate net worth) I find the stock attractive.
Steelcase, with headquarters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, is the world’s largest manufacturer of office furniture. In its fiscal first quarter it posted earnings near break-even, which was better than analysts expected.
I think it’s fair to say that Steelcase is a mature business. If the shares were selling for a single-digit multiple of earnings, I’d be interested. But at the current 15 times earnings, I’m not.
American Greetings, based in Cleveland, zoomed higher when its first-quarter sales were stronger than analysts expected. Sales have been declining for five straight years.
Investors also seemed to approve of the company’s sale of its 341 retail stores. The company now returns to its roots as a designer and maker of greeting cards. At 12 times earnings and just under book value, I think American Greetings has decent appreciation potential.
Attractive Brokerage
Raymond James came to my attention in the late 1980s and 1990s, when I wrote a series of articles for the Wall Street Journal rating the performance of brokerage-house recommended- stock lists. The St. Petersburg, Florida, firm often did well in the rankings.
I’ve kept an eye on the stock since then, but it usually has been too expensive for me. Today, knocked down by the bear market of the past two years, it sells for 12 times earnings and 1.2 times book value.
Disclosure note: I own shares of Raymond James Financial for many of my clients, but not personally. I have no long or short positions in the other stocks mentioned in this week’s column.
(John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column.)
To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman at jdorfman@thunderstormcapital.com
Last Updated: July 19, 2009 21:00 EDT
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