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John Dorfman
Four Stocks Make It Past My Cheapskate Filter: John Dorfman

Commentary by John Dorfman


Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Any single measure of whether a stock is undervalued may be misleading. If you find one that seems inexpensive by several measures, though, chances are you have found a bargain.

I screened U.S. stocks with a market value of $500 million or more to find ones that are cheap by all of my favorite yardsticks. These stocks sell for less than 12 times earnings, less than one times book value (corporate net worth) and less than one times revenue. I also required that corporate debt be less than stockholders’ equity.

Of the more than three dozen stocks that passed the test, I recommend these four.

Marathon Oil Corp., based in Houston, leads the list. Marathon explores for and produces oil around the world and last year had revenue of about $72 billion.

In the world of integrated oil giants, Marathon’s $22 billion market cap places it behind Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp.

I like all five, though Marathon seems the most attractively priced.

Marathon is heavily into refining and marketing compared with most integrated oil producers, and light on exploration and production. This can be viewed as a weakness, but I believe the stock price compensates for it. As the economy recovers, I think the U.S. will soon see an increase in driving, a boon to companies that refine and sell gasoline.

Keep Growing

In the past five years the company has increased sales at about 15 percent annually while earnings rose at a clip of about 35 percent. Since I think the price of oil is likely to rise over the next five years, I believe Marathon can sustain its growth.

All that makes Marathon shares seem undervalued at six times earnings, 1.03 times book value, and 0.4 times revenue.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., the world’s second-largest cruise line (after Carnival Corp. and its affiliates), is another bargain. Royal Caribbean’s three dozen ships carry about 4 million people a year to more than 400 ports.

Vacation cruises are so entrenched in our culture it’s hard to recall that Royal Caribbean basically started the business back in 1969.

The recession has hurt, of course. The company posted net losses the last two quarters after squeezing out a gain in the fourth quarter of last year.

Cruising Along

Since 2004 the Miami-based company had earned more than $2 a share annually. It topped $3 a share in 2005.

The five-year sales growth rate for Royal Caribbean, through 2008, was almost 12 percent. Earnings growth was close to 20 percent.

A key question is how long it will take before vacationers are again willing to spend heavily for cabins in a floating hotel. My guess is that the day will come sooner than most investors suppose.

I find Royal Caribbean attractive at 12 times earnings, 0.6 times book value and 0.7 times revenue.

Smaller and perhaps more speculative, but quite interesting, is Tutor Perini Corp., a construction company based in Sylmar, California.

This month Tutor Perini won a $192 million contract with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey to reconstruct a subway tunnel and related structures near the World Trade Center. Last month it snagged a $204 million contract for runway work at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York.

Master Builder

This isn’t just a New York-focused firm, though. For example, it was the largest U.S. builder of hotels and convention centers, as of 2007.

Tutor Perini’s revenue last year was $5.7 billion. But its stock-market value is only $983 million, which is 0.2 times revenue, less than six times earnings and 0.8 times book value.

Finally, I like Overseas Shipholding Group Inc., a New York-based oil tanker company. Its fleet includes 107 vessels of varying sizes, including 17 supertankers.

Day rates for tankers vary immensely -- sometimes inexplicably -- from month to month and year to year. But the ships will be kept busy for a long time to come. I believe that most Western countries will continue to need oil, and much of it will come from the Middle East and Latin America.

Investors are concerned that too many tankers are being built. Overseas Shipholding, for example, has 25 on order.

That’s a legitimate concern, but a fair number of vessels are coming out of circulation worldwide, thanks to tougher rules requiring tankers to be double-hulled. And the stock is extremely cheap, at four times earnings, 0.5 times book and 0.7 times revenue.

Disclosure note: Personally and for clients, I own shares in Carnival Corp. and Overseas Shipholding. I currently have no long or short positions in the other stocks discussed in this week’s column.

(John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column.)

To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman at jdorfman@thunderstormcapital.com.

Last Updated: August 23, 2009 21:01 EDT

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