Commentary by David Wilson
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co.'s acceptance of a $400 million buyout offer shows the dealmaking sparked by the near-collapse of the subprime mortgage industry this year isn't over yet.
The San Diego-based company agreed to a $15.10-a-share bid from Lone Star Funds, a private-equity firm that specializes in bad loans and real estate. The price is four times the stock's low of $3.77 in March, when Accredited Home's then-auditor questioned whether the lender would survive.
Yesterday's deal was the first to be announced in six weeks. H&R Block Inc., the largest U.S. tax preparer, said on April 20 that Cerberus Capital Management LP -- another private- equity firm -- would buy its Option One subprime unit.
There's more to come in the industry, serving homebuyers whose credit ratings are less than ideal. ResMae Mortgage Corp., a Brea, California-based company that filed for bankruptcy in February, is looking to sell its assets for $180 million to Citadel Investment Group, a hedge-fund manager.
NovaStar Financial Group, another lender battered by the industry's slump, put itself up for sale in April. The Kansas City, Missouri-based company later received $1.9 billion in financing from Wachovia Corp. to keep providing mortgages.
Even Accredited Home may attract more attention. Farallon Capital Management LLC held acquisition talks with the company in March before making a $200 million loan. The hedge fund is its fifth-largest stockholder, with a 7 percent stake.
Bidding Competition
The possibility of another offer from Farallon, based in San Francisco, or a higher bid from Lone Star sent Accredited Home's shares above the buyout price. They closed at $15.12 yesterday, a gain of 9.9 percent, and peaked at $15.44.
NovaStar's shares added 5.6 percent and traded at a three- month high of $7.94. Fremont General Corp., which has closed its subprime unit, agreed to sell a commercial-lending business and brought in new management led by billionaire banker Gerald J. Ford, advanced 0.8 percent to $12.99.
Private-equity firms and hedge funds aren't the only buyers of subprime lenders. Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second- largest bank, made the last deal announced before the sale of Option One. The firm agreed to buy Lake Oswego, Oregon-based Lime Financial Services for an undisclosed price in April.
The industry has fallen so far that even takeover offers may not make shareholders whole. Accredited Home changed hands for more than $20 a share as recently as March 2, when subprime mortgage companies were starting their descent.
Showing Some Profits
Second Curve Capital LLC, led by former bank analyst Thomas Brown, built an 8.5 percent stake in Accredited Home before the stock collapsed. The New York-based hedge fund later purchased more shares, bringing its stake to 11 percent.
The $15.10-a-share offer would enable Second Curve to show a profit on some of its investment, even if it wouldn't make the firm whole. Brown and his colleagues most recently bought 75,000 shares at $12.26 each, according to a May 21 filing.
Bigger profits, or at least smaller losses, may lie ahead for investors in subprime stocks as the deals keep coming.
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The decline in Dow Jones & Co.'s stock price as Rupert Murdoch met with the Bancroft family yesterday illustrates the risk of speculating on increased takeover offers. Shareholders in other target companies may learn this lesson soon.
Dow Jones, the New York-based publisher of the Wall Street Journal, slid 1.7 percent to $60.16 as Murdoch pitched his $60- a-share proposal. The Bancrofts own a 64 percent voting stake.
The shares rallied to $61.49 last week after the family, ending a month of resistance, agreed to sit down with Murdoch. Yesterday, they fell as low as $59.88 on anticipation that the Bancrofts would accept his bid. (This columnist has nine Class B common shares, with 10 votes each.)
Dow Jones was one of two dozen U.S. companies whose stock ended last week above its price in an acquisition, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The others included Archstone-Smith Trust, the second-largest publicly traded U.S. apartment owner; Bausch & Lomb Inc., a maker of eye-care products, and CKX Inc., the producer of the ``American Idol'' television show.
* * *
Brazil just became the last of the so-called BRIC countries to exceed $1 trillion in stock-market value for the first time. South Korea may not be far behind. For investors in emerging markets, round numbers like these can be deceiving.
The value of Brazilian companies' equity climbed to $1.02 trillion at the end of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. India also rose above the trillion-dollar threshold during the week.
Russia and China both surpassed $1 trillion in December. While Russia's market later slipped below that level, China's reached $2 trillion at the end of April. Even after a slump in the past week, it's valued at $2.25 trillion.
The deception results from the difference between market value and float, or shares available for trading. In China, for instance, governments and state-run companies control hundreds of billions of dollars in stock even though regulators are pushing to convert the holdings into tradable shares.
(David Wilson is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 5, 2007 00:05 EDT
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