April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Two things Senator John McCain said about his 2000 run for the presidency haunt his current campaign. He jokingly referred to the reporters who rode his bus as his ``base.'' And he mused later about whether it's possible ``to catch lightning in a bottle twice.''

The answer this year is no, and more and more people who care about McCain want him to get out. The laws of nature and the press are hurting him, along with a Republican field he didn't expect, the possibility of having to oppose Senator Barack Obama rather than Senator Hillary Clinton, and the war in Iraq.

Then there's McCain himself. As Dan Schnur, McCain's former communications director, says, ``There's no possible way that any campaign can live up to the over-idealized memory of 2000.''

Instead of the maverick capable of saying anything, the Arizona senator is as buttoned-down and establishment-heavy as the hyper-financed and organized Bush machine that defeated him back then. When he pulled his bus -- the ``Straight Talk Express'' -- out of the garage for a spin this campaign, it was a lean, mean machine complete with flat-panel TVs.

``McCain has always been best at scrambling for a first down,'' Schnur said. ``Now he's staying in the pocket.''

When anyone complains about McCain's organization this year being replete with the same aides of President George W. Bush who had trashed him, McCain reminds folks that he didn't WIN last time.

Falling in Polls

He may not this time either. The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows former Senator Fred Thompson, who's not even an announced candidate, with 15 percent support to McCain's 12 percent. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 29 percent, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is in single digits.

Should McCain lose, it will be for profoundly different reasons than in 2000 -- chiefly the war and, more specifically, Bush's recent dispatch of more troops.

The senator's unstinting support for the war brought the worst moment of his campaign, the kind of stunt the McCain of the Straight Talk Express would have never participated in.

Wanting to show that, contrary to reports, the troop surge was working, McCain overshot his mark. Walking through a central market in Baghdad, he insisted it was a flourishing concern full of happy shoppers out for a stroll in the newly secure downtown.

Bulletproof Vest

That claim was so preposterous, it was disproved almost as quickly as it was made. McCain was swaddled in bulletproof clothing, surrounded by 100 armed guards with military helicopters hovering above. The market had been the scene of innumerable acts of violence, and the very next day, steps from where he haggled over some rugs, more people were killed.

The flap over the walk in the market was so enormous that the campaign quickly arranged an appearance on the ``60 Minutes'' television show. McCain was a bit of his old self, zinging Bush a few times and saying he would be having a ``lot less fun'' if he didn't ``misspeak'' once in a while.

But there's less of that now with such a conventional campaign. McCain snapped ``I don't like to lose,'' when asked about differences this time around.

Until the troop surge, McCain was a supporter of the war, but such a persistent critic of how it was being handled that he could separate himself from the administration.

Lost His Chance

When Bush announced the deployment, McCain had a chance to back off, given that the numbers the president recommended fell short of what his own commander, General David Petraeus, set out in a formula contained in a book on fighting insurgencies. McCain chose not to, and now he's as one with Bush.

But unlike the president, who says leaving Iraq will be up to future presidents, McCain has a short timetable to show it's working.

The ``60 Minutes'' interview was the beginning of a surge in the McCain campaign -- three speeches this month and a reorganization of his fund-raising team.

If the first speech is any indication, McCain intends to wrap himself even tighter around the war. When he spoke at Virginia Military Institute yesterday, he sounded a lot like Bush. Referring to Democratic lawmakers who cheered as they passed a funding measure with a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, he said: ``What were they celebrating? Defeat? Surrender? In Iraq, only our enemies were cheering.''

Not Helping

This isn't going to help return moderates and independents to the McCain fold. And it isn't solidifying those Republicans who are for the war. If he had those folks, and added a piece of the Bush establishment, shouldn't he be north of 50 percent in the polls?

Schnur says that even the most-stalwart supporters of the war hold the quiet hope that a new president will try something different. McCain won't be that president.

He has trimmed his sails on some positions. He's for a tax cut he was once against, and now says he wouldn't object if the Supreme Court banned abortion. He made nice to Reverend Jerry Falwell, whom he once called an ``agent of intolerance.''

But he has company. Romney reversed most of what he stood for as governor and added a fictitious history as a hunter for good measure. Rudy promised to hand the judiciary to the right. The problem for McCain is he used to be above such maneuverings.

McCain's other two speeches will be on domestic issues -- but not campaign-finance reform or killing pork -- to the sort of town hall meetings he used to hold, answering questions until everyone was exhausted.

He would always leave a little time to sign books, some brought to him in plastic bags to keep them pristine for the coffee table back home. People loved him then. It was something to see.

(Margaret Carlson, author of ``Anyone Can Grow Up: How George Bush and I Made It to the White House'' and former White House correspondent for Time magazine, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Margaret Carlson in Washington at mcarlson3@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 12, 2007 00:23 EDT