By Ilya Khrennikov
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index may increase as retailer OAO Magnit, OAO Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel and power company MRSK Holding are likely to join the gauge, according to brokerage Aton LLC.
Preferred shares of OAO Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, may also be added to MSCI’s Russia index after a fivefold surge this year lifted its market value to almost $2 billion, all of which is traded publicly, Renaissance Capital wrote in a report.
The benchmark Micex Index has more than doubled this year as signs of a global economic rebound spurred demand for commodities, boosting the income outlook for Russia, the world’s largest energy supplier. Sberbank’s preferred stock soared 474 percent in 2009, beating all but one of the 2,413 shares in the MSCI AC World Index of advanced and developing countries. The MSCI’s reshuffle in August included OAO Transneft, triggering an 18 percent gain in the oil pipeline operator.
Magnit has “a good chance” of being included, and that along with other additions may raise Russia’s share in the emerging markets index, Peter Westin, chief strategist at Moscow-based Aton, said in an e-mail.
Magnit, the country’s second-biggest food retailer, raised about $369 million from the sale of shares in the form of global depositary receipts, boosting the company’s freefloat to about 48 percent of shares outstanding, or almost $3 billion, according to Westin. RenCap and Westin had Magnitogorsk and MRSK on their MSCI candidate lists.
Credit Growth
Credit growth in Russia may further drive stock returns, ING Groep NV said in an equity strategy report e-mailed today.
“Russia for now looks to be in a good position, given recovering commodity prices and debt markets, but may need to focus on generating long-term savings to fund mid-term growth,” ING said.
Magnit added 2.7 percent to $15.40 in London trading today. The company reported sales in October increased 22 percent from the same period last year as it added stores and Citigroup Inc. upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold,” citing the global share sale and outlook for store openings.
Magnitogorsk, Russia’s third-largest steelmaker, rose 1.5 percent to 23.547 rubles on the Micex. MRSK, which manages Russia’s interregional power distribution companies, jumped 4.7 percent to 3.70 rubles.
Preferred shares of Sberbank dropped 2.5 percent to 52.03 rubles. The stock was removed from the MSCI country gauge a year ago after its capitalization dropped to $300 million, RenCap wrote in the report today.
‘Very Good Chance’
“It has since rebounded” and stands “a very good chance” of returning to the index, according to the report.
MSCI Inc. is scheduled to announce changes to its indexes at 5 p.m. in New York today. Changes to the MSCI indexes may cause shares that are chosen for inclusion to advance and those slated for deletion to drop as funds designed to mirror the benchmarks buy and sell stocks in accordance with those changes.
Russia had a 6.7 percent weighting in the MSCI index of 22 developing countries as of yesterday, according to the index provider.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Khrennikov in Moscow ikhrennikov@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 11, 2009 11:58 EST
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