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Gold Coin Output to Drop by 32% on Demand, Austrian Mint Says

By Aya Takada and Yasumasa Song

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Austrian mint, the world’s largest marketer of pure gold coins, plans to slash output by 32 percent next year from a record, forecasting the end of the financial crisis will weaken investor demand.

Muenze Oesterreich AG aims to cut production of Philharmonic gold coins to 650,000 ounces in 2010 from an estimated 950,000 ounces this year, mint President Kurt Meyer said in an interview in Tokyo. Output in 2009 is set to reach an all-time high for a second year after financial turmoil triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. spurred demand, he said.

Gold surged to a record $1,070.80 an ounce Oct. 14 and has gained 17 percent this year on demand for a currency alternative and inflation hedge as the dollar declined. The International Monetary Fund this month raised its forecast for global growth next year to 3.1 percent as more than $2 trillion in stimulus packages and demand in Asia pull the world economy out of its worst recession since World War II.

“The crisis is over, and economies are recovering,” Meyer said yesterday during a visit to Japan to promote sales of a new 20-ounce version of the coin. “Gold investment stimulated by concerns about the financial system will subside,” he said. The coin design depicts musical instruments representing the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra, according to the mint’s Web site.

Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,031.63 an ounce at 10:07 a.m. in Tokyo. Prices are headed for a ninth annual increase, extending last year’s 5.8 percent gain. The dollar has dropped 5.2 percent against the euro this year.

Interest Rates

“Gold rallied on speculation that the dollar will weaken because of low U.S. interest rates,” said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at commodity broker Fujitomi Co. in Tokyo. “If these conditions change, the metal’s advance will come to a halt.”

Investors buy bullion as gold coins, bars or through shares in exchange-traded products. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by the metal, were 1,105.65 metric tons on Oct. 27 after reaching a record 1,134.03 tons on June 1.

Other coins purchased by investors include the U.S. Mint’s American Eagle, Canada’s Maple Leaf and South Africa’s Krugerrand.

The 800-year-old Austrian mint, located in a former Habsburg palace, sold 908,721 ounces of gold coins so far this year, exceeding overall sales last year by 14 percent, Meyer said. Including bars, the mint sold 1.9 million ounces of gold this year, 23 percent more than last year’s total sales of 1.54 million ounces, he added.

Global Market

The Austrian mint became the top marketer of pure gold coins, taking a 30 percent share in the global market in the three months ended Dec. 31, as producers in other countries failed to catch up with growing demand on a lack of available metal, Meyer said.

In Japan, the Austrian mint sold 42,659 ounces of gold coins in the nine months ended Sept. 30, taking a 57 percent market share, according to Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., the biggest Japanese retailer of precious metals. Tanaka, which acts as a sales agent for the mint in the country, expects to sell a total 70,000 ounces by the end of this year.

Tanaka’s sales of gold bars to local investors increased 12 percent from a year earlier to 25,614 kilograms in the nine months ended Sept. 30. Individuals bought bullion to diversify their assets amid the financial crisis, said Osamu Ikeda, general manager at Tanaka’s precious metals division.

Haven demand driven by the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year and inflation concerns because of liquidity pumped into the global system by centrals banks were no longer reasons for gold prices to keep rallying, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini said Oct. 8.

“The tail risk of those two cataclysmic risks have diminished significantly,” Roubini told reporters in New York. “There is no inflation threat” in the short term, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo atakada2@bloomberg.net; Yasumasa Song in Tokyo at ysong9@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 28, 2009 23:18 EDT

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