Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- World cereal production will reach 2.234 billion metric tons this year, more than forecast in July on a bigger-than-expected wheat crop, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.

The harvest will drop 2.1 percent from a record 2.28 billion tons a year earlier, the FAO said in a report on its Web site today. The forecast is 26 million tons higher than the previous estimate.

Wheat harvests exceeded expectations in countries in Asia, Africa and Europe and in the U.S., the Rome-based agency said. The world cereals stocks-to-use ratio, an indicator of food security, will be little changed next year at an above-average level, it said.

“A combination of a good outlook for production and relatively high carryover stocks from the previous season lessen the concern regarding the overall supply situation, at least for the current season,” the FAO said.

World cereal stocks will expand by about 4 million tons to 509 million tons next year, the highest level since 2002, according to the FAO.

Wheat stocks will rise 6 percent to 183 million tons, the FAO estimates. Coarse grain inventories are forecast to drop 1.8 percent to 205 million tons and rice reserves will shrink 2 percent to 121 million tons, the FAO said.

Global wheat output will reach 678 million tons, 0.5 percent lower than a year earlier, the group said. Production of coarse grains, which includes corn, will slip 2.9 percent to 1.108 billion tons and milled-rice output will decline 2.3 percent to 449 million tons.

Bad Weather

The outlook for rice output deteriorated “considerably” because of adverse weather and natural disasters in several producing countries in Asia, the FAO said.

Bumper wheat crops in north Africa and “good production” in several wheat-importing countries in Asia will reduce the need for grain imports, crimping world cereal trade by 25 million tons, or 9 percent, to 258 million tons, the FAO said.

Smaller imports and lower grain prices should slash the world cereal import bill by 24 percent to $64 billion in the 2009-10 season, the FAO said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 10, 2009 06:52 EST