Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush argues that his election to a second term gave him a popular mandate to undertake the most radical transformation of Social Security in the 69-year history of the program.

Some of his staunchest allies on Capitol Hill aren't so sure, especially since they publicly campaigned against changing the retirement system.

Republican House members such as Katherine Harris of Florida, Candice Miller of Michigan and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia have expressed reservations about Bush's proposal to partially privatize Social Security by establishing personal investment accounts.

``I'm not sure I've heard a solution I've agreed with,'' said Harris, who as Florida's secretary of state played a central role in the vote-counting dispute in 2000 with her interpretation of the state's election laws. Harris, who was elected to the House in 2002, said last year she opposed creating the private accounts unless future benefits are guaranteed.

Opposition to the private accounts within his party may be a powerful obstacle to Bush's paramount domestic priority because Democrats are unlikely to step forward to help him push a plan through Congress, said Eric Uslaner, professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland. ``He loses a handful of Republicans and he's dead,'' said Uslaner, author of the 1993 book, ``The Decline of Comity in Congress.''

Bush began his campaign to promote the proposal for personal accounts with a Jan. 11 ``town hall'' meeting of supporters in Washington. He sounded the theme again in his inaugural speech yesterday, vowing to ``build an ownership society'' and ``reform great institutions to serve the needs of our time.''

No Specific Plan

Bush hasn't outlined a specific plan for Social Security, which will begin paying out more than it takes in by 2018, according to the Social Security Board of Trustees. A bipartisan commission he appointed in 2001 proposed allowing workers to invest 2 to 4 percentage points of the 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax in stocks and bonds in funds managed by companies such as Merrill Lynch & Co.

Claire Buchan, a White House spokeswoman, said the president was more concerned about educating the public than with potential Republican defections. ``This is going to be a process, and the president looks forward to working with members,'' she said.

`Bad Idea'

Most of the skeptical Republican lawmakers either face closely contested districts or represent areas with sizable senior populations. According to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll conducted Jan. 7-9, 63 percent of respondents over the age of 50 said they considered personal accounts a ``bad idea,'' while 33 percent endorsed the idea. Among respondents under age 30, 55 percent called the private accounts a ``good idea'' and 42 percent opposed the proposal, according to the national poll of 1,008 adults. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Capito, who was first elected in 2000, was the first Republican in 18 years to serve her West Virginia district, which includes the state capital, Charleston. During the 2002 campaign, she told the Washington Post that investing Social Security taxes in the financial markets was like playing ``Russian roulette.''

She has softened her position and now says she would be willing to consider all options for fixing the system, said R.C. Hammond, Capito's spokesman.

AARP, the largest lobbying group for Americans 50 and older, is pressing Capito and other members of the West Virginia delegation to oppose the accounts, said Gaylene Miller, a lobbyist for the state's AARP chapter.

The group opposes the private accounts because they would divert money from the retirement system at a time when the need will be most acute, said David Certner, AARP's director of federal affairs.

West Virginia

The West Virginia AARP chapter is sponsoring four to six forums across the state in the next six months and rolling out a TV and print campaign as part of the AARP's national media strategy to oppose the Bush proposal, Miller said.

Capito ``has been receptive to looking at AARP's position and I think she respects our interests,'' Miller said.

Harris, who represents a district that contains one of the oldest populations in the U.S., said she was taking seniors' concerns into account. ``I have a very close personal working relationship with the AARP,'' said Harris, who voted in favor of Bush proposals 94 percent of the time in 2004.

During the 2004 campaign, Harris responded to an AARP questionnaire issued to Florida candidates by saying she ``opposes creating private individual accounts out of Social Security unless she can be assured that Social Security benefits will not be compromised in the future.''

`Foolish'

One of Harris's constituents, Marty Wood, 92, said the investment options for personal accounts would not meet with approval from most people in Harris's Manatee district.

``It's foolish because the average person is not well enough equipped to know enough about the stock market,'' said Wood, director of volunteers for the AARP's Manatee Widowed Persons Service.

Miller represents a portion of Macomb County, Michigan, which she said has one of the five largest senior populations in the U.S. ``We don't move to Florida,'' she said. ``We stay here.''

In a statement on her Web site during the 2002 elections, Miller said she ``would not allow anyone to change the rules on Social Security in a way that hurts our senior citizens.''

There can be ``no privatization of Social Security,'' she wrote. ``We cannot put retirement security at risk by putting any of the trust fund dollars in risky investments like the stock market.''

`Very, Very Cautious'

Miller said in an interview that she wouldn't rule out personal accounts. She said she ``would really be very, very cautious about changing the rules'' for Social Security because she isn't certain stock investments would be safe enough to ensure benefits for seniors.

Representative Robin Hayes of North Carolina, who voted for bills Bush supported 76 percent of the time last year, has the same concerns about personal accounts that he expressed in a 2002 debate, said Carolyn Hern, a spokeswoman. ``His position is still the same,'' she said. ``He does not support privatization and is currently taking a let's see approach.''

During the 2004 campaign, Representative Jon Porter of Nevada said he opposed changing current Social Security benefits, though personal accounts should be considered. ``He feels the debate ought to start and to put everything on the table,'' said Adam Mayberry, his spokesman.

Fissures in the Republican consensus on private accounts started to appear during the fight to boost the Republican House majority and retake the Senate in 2002.

2002 Advice

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which devises strategy for House campaigns, encouraged candidates in 2002 to distance themselves from the idea of privatizing Social Security.

According to an excerpt from an NRCC ``Issues Book'' on the Web site of Campaign for America's Future, a group that opposes the personal accounts, Republican candidates were advised to say, ``1. I am opposed to cutting benefits for anyone -- current and future recipients. 2. I am opposed to raising taxes. 3. I am opposed to increasing the retirement age. 4. I am opposed to privatizing the system.''

A study that year for the NRCC by the Alexandria, Virginia- based Tarrance Group said the ``Democrat attempt to label GOP position on Social Security as favoring ``privatization'' presents a serious threat,'' according to a list of the firm's recommendations on the Campaign for America's Future Web site.

`Talking Points'

The NRCC's recommendations didn't commit Republican lawmakers to a position, said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the group. ``There is no concern among us that people locked into things if they stuck to the talking points they were provided,'' he said.

Some Republicans who support personal accounts are trying to find common ground with skeptics. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina began meeting with Democrats earlier this month to build bipartisan consensus for a bill.

Florida Representative Mark Foley is urging the Bush administration to base its proposal on the Thrift Savings Plan, the retirement program available to all federal employees, including members of Congress.

Under the plan, an individual can choose from five funds, including those with overseas stocks and government securities.

``Members of Congress don't consider that a risky scheme because it enhances their retirement,'' Foley said.

Even some of the proposal's supporters say it may need to be substantially changed before it can be approved by Congress. Charles Grassley, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said Social Security should be part of a broader package that provides tax incentives for enhanced retirement savings. ``Social Security would be just a small part of it,'' Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said in an interview yesterday.

U.S. Representative Bill Thomas, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said earlier this week that the Bush administration's Social Security proposal was a ``dead horse'' that will be altered by Congress.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Bliss in Washington at jbliss@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 21, 2005 00:16 EST