Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The race between President George W. Bush and John Kerry, the four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a toss-up less than four weeks before the election, national and state polls released this week show.

The candidates head for St. Louis for the second of three debates tonight with nine of 11 national polls showing the gap between the two men within the margin of error. A poll by the Pew Research Center taken after the first debate Sept. 30 showed Bush ahead by 5 percentage points. Another by the Associated Press and Ipsos Public Affairs gave Kerry a 4-point edge.

Polls in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado and New Mexico, five of the 17 to 20 states that both campaigns say are battlegrounds in the Nov. 2 vote, also showed the race deadlocked. Together those five states represent 71 of the 270 Electoral College votes a candidate needs to win the presidency.

``We think this race has settled into about a 2-point advantage for us right now,'' Bush strategist Matthew Dowd said in a statement. Some polls are ``lower than that, some higher than that, but the total of them is 2 points, and we think the battleground states are reflective of that.''

``We've always said we think the race is neck and neck,'' Kerry campaign spokesman David Wade said. ``But it is telling that a week after Dowd and other Bush campaign officials predicted Bush would prevail in the first debate, they now acknowledge the race is extremely close.''

Foreign Policy Debate

Bush, 58, led Kerry, 60, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, by as much as 8 percentage points before the Sept. 30 debate in Coral Gables, Florida, according to four national polls. The first debate focused on foreign policy and was dominated by the war in Iraq. Tonight's encounter has undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization asking questions of Bush and Kerry.

Kerry's performance in the first debate helped him persuade some voters he has a clear plan for leading the country, according to a Los Angeles Times poll conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1.

When asked which candidate has a more detailed plan for policies he would pursue, 725 registered voters who watched the debate preferred Kerry by 4 percentage points in the Los Angeles Times poll. Before the debate, Bush led on that question by 9 percentage points. Overall, Kerry was supported by 49 percent of voters and Bush was backed by 47 percent. The poll had a 4 percentage point margin for error.

``If you look at the dynamics going into the last debate, you had a remarkably bad six weeks for Kerry,'' James Lucier, a political analyst with Prudential Equity Group, said in an interview. ``Kerry was almost like a stock that had reached its low and then it turns and then it recovers.''

AP Poll

Kerry took the lead over Bush in an Associated Press-Ipsos Public Affairs poll of 944 voters surveyed Oct. 4-6. Fifty percent said they would vote for Kerry if the election were held now, compared with 46 percent who said they would support Bush. The poll's margin of error was 3 percentage points. In an AP-Ipsos poll done Sept. 20-22, Bush led Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent.

Bush led 49 percent to 44 percent in a Pew Research Center poll of 801 likely voters conducted Oct. 1-3. Forty-nine percent said Kerry changes his mind too much to be president, a criticism Bush has made in speeches and advertisements.

Fifty-seven percent had a favorable impression of Bush compared with 53 percent for Kerry, Pew found. The poll had a 4 percentage point margin for error.

Other polls showed the presidential race in a statistical tie.

Kerry led 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent in a Newsweek magazine poll of 1,013 registered voters conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2. After the debate, voters said Kerry had a better command of the facts and considered him more likeable than Bush by 47 percent to 41 percent. The poll had a 4 percentage point margin for error.

Approval Rating Down

Bush's approval rating fell below 50 percent in the Newsweek poll for the first time since the Republican National Convention ended Sept. 2. In a Newsweek survey taken immediately after the convention Bush led Kerry by 11 percentage points.

Kerry's performance in the debate also made voters more confident he can fight terrorism, a CBS News poll found. Thirty-nine percent said they had ``a lot'' of confidence that Kerry could protect the U.S. from terrorism compared with 25 percent before the debate. Bush still leads on that issue, as 52 percent said they had a lot of confidence in the president compared with 50 percent before the debate.

The candidates were tied at 47 percent each in the poll of 561 likely voters conducted Oct. 1-3. The survey had a 4 percentage point margin for error. Bush led by 8 percentage points in a Sept. 20-22 CBS poll.

Dead Heat

Kerry and Bush were in a dead heat in a Gallup poll of 1,106 adults conducted Oct. 1-3, as both candidates were backed by 49 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Bush had the support of 47 percent of 1,000 voters polled Oct. 3- 4 by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics while 45 percent backed Kerry, a result within the 3 percentage point margin for error.

The candidates were tied at 46 percent each in a survey of 800 likely voters Oct. 2-4 by Manchester, New Hampshire-based American Research Group.

Bush was backed by 49 percent while 46 percent supported Kerry in a Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll of 642 likely voters conducted Oct. 4-5. The poll had a 4 percentage point margin for error. Bush led by 6 percentage points in a Marist poll before the debate.

`Clear Plan'

Bush led 50 percent to 45 percent for Kerry in a Washington Post/ABC News poll of 1,470 registered voters conducted Oct. 1-3. Kerry gained ground on Iraq and terrorism as 42 percent said he had a ``clear plan'' following the debate, compared with 37 percent before it. Fifty-one percent of voters said Bush had a clear plan, down from 55 percent before. The poll had a 3 percentage point margin for error.

Bush and Kerry were in a statistical tie in a Zogby International poll of 1,036 likely voters conducted Oct. 1-3. Forty- six percent supported Bush and 45 percent backed Kerry. The poll had a 3.1 percentage point margin for error.

Fifty-nine percent of Zogby respondents said Kerry won the first debate and 21 percent said Bush did a better job. That was in line with results of other polls that asked who won the debate.

Bush's responses in the first debate were too frequently drawn from his campaign speeches, which didn't give him enough material to fill up his allotted speaking time, said Gary Jacobson, a professor of political science at the University of California in San Diego.

``My guess is that he will be better prepared to fill up his time'' in the next debate, Jacobson said in an interview. ``I think the campaigns will have studied their guy and try to do things that get better results.''

Momentum

Lucier said Kerry's performance in the first debate increases the pressure on him to keep up that momentum.

``He has to do what he did before a second time,'' Lucier said. ``Bush just has to do better than he did in the first debate.''

To win the presidency, a candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes, which are appropriated among states based on congressional representation. That tally, rather than national vote totals, determines the winner.

A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Utah, with 178 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 states, including New York and Illinois, with 164 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 196 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Florida, results of the most recent polls were within the margin of error.

Florida Voters

Florida voters are almost evenly divided between Bush and Kerry, two polls showed, while Bush had a clear advantage in a third. Bush led 48 percent to 44 percent in a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey. An American Research Group poll found Kerry ahead 48 percent to 46 percent. Bush led by 7 percentage points in a Quinnipiac University survey.

Mason-Dixon sampled 625 likely voters Oct. 4-5, while American Research Group polled 600 likely voters Oct. 4-5. Quinnipiac polled 717 likely voters Oct. 1-5. The polls had 4 percentage point margins for error. Florida has 27 electoral votes.

The candidates are tied in Ohio with Kerry backed by 48 percent and Bush backed by 47 percent, an American Research Group poll found. The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Oct. 4-6 and had a 4 percentage point margin for error. An American Research Group poll done Sept. 17-20 showed Bush ahead 48 percent to 46 percent.

Kerry leads Bush 49 percent to 48 percent in Ohio, according to an Oct. 2-4 SurveyUSA poll of 761 likely voters for WCPO-TV in Cincinnati and WKYC-TV in Cleveland. The poll had a 3.6 percentage point margin for error.

Both campaigns have identified Ohio and its 20 electoral votes as key to the election. No Republican has ever been elected without carrying the state.

Ohio, Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Kerry leads Bush in two polls and the candidates are tied in a second.

A survey of 600 likely voters by West Chester University's Center for Social and Economic Research found Kerry backed by 50 percent while 43 percent supported Bush. The poll was conducted Oct. 1-4 and had a 4 percentage point margin for error.

Kerry was supported by 48 percent of 594 registered voters in a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Keystone poll, while 41 percent backed Bush. The survey was conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Kerry's 2 percentage point lead in a American Research poll in Pennsylvania was within the survey's margin for error. The survey of 600 likely voters was done Oct. 4-6.

Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes have gone to the Democratic Party's candidate for the past three elections. Both campaigns consider the state winnable on Nov. 2.

New Mexico

In New Mexico, Bush was supported by 50 percent and Kerry by 47 percent of 673 likely voters polled by Gallup Oct 3-6. The results were within the survey's 4 percentage point margin for error. Bush lost New Mexico to Democratic nominee Al Gore in 2000. The state has five electoral votes.

Bush leads Kerry 49 percent to 46 percent in Wisconsin, according to a Gallup poll of 704 likely voters conducted Oct. 3-5. The results were within the survey's 4 percentage point margin for error. In 2000 Gore won Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes.

In Colorado, Bush and Kerry are in a statistical tie with 49 percent each, according to a Gallup poll of 667 likely voters conducted Oct. 3-6. The poll had a 5 percentage point margin for error. In 2000 Bush won the state, which has 9 electoral votes.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 8, 2004 13:04 EDT