April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose amid speculation U.S. gasoline inventories will decline as rising demand from motorists outstrips the ability of refiners to produce the fuel.

Gasoline use in the U.S. is up 2 percent from a year ago, Energy Department data show. U.S. gasoline supplies probably fell 300,000 barrels last week, according to the median of forecasts by 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Refiners are expected to raise oil-processing rates in the next month as they complete seasonal maintenance.

``Gasoline inventories are in decent shape, but it wouldn't take long for the excess to disappear as we go into peak demand this summer,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ``We can't afford any extended refinery outages.''

Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.18, or 2.3 percent, to $51.55 a barrel at 10:35 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 12 percent since touching $58.28 on April 4, which was the highest since the contract began in 1983. Futures are up 37 percent from a year ago.

In London, the June Brent crude-oil futures contract rose $1.42, or 2.8 percent, to $52.20 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent futures are down 9.8 percent from the record $57.65 a barrel reached on April 4.

U.S. refineries are running closer to capacity as rising demand strains their ability to produce enough fuel. No refinery has been built in the country in almost three decades. About 10 percent of global oil production is used to make gasoline for U.S. motorists.

Gasoline for May delivery rose 4.31 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $1.5375 a gallon in New York. Prices are 31 percent higher than a year ago.

OPEC Production

U.S. pump prices for regular gasoline were unchanged at $2.244 a gallon yesterday, according to the AAA, formerly the American Automobile Association. Prices touched a record $2.276 a gallon on April 8 and are 24 percent higher than a year ago.

U.S. crude inventories probably rose by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median forecast of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the 10th increase in a row. The U.S. Energy Department will publish its weekly report on petroleum stockpiles tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Should gains in U.S. oil and fuel inventories be unexpectedly large, ``prices could go down another leg,'' said Craig Pennington, energy analyst at Schroders Plc in London.

New York futures have dropped to $50 a barrel or slightly lower during each of the past three trading sessions and then rebounded by the close each time.

OPEC

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of about 40 percent of the world's oil, is letting inventories rise during the second quarter before demand peaks in the fourth, reversing a policy of curbing output this time of year.

By boosting production in the past two months, OPEC has helped to lower oil prices from records. It's also benefited from selling more oil at historically high prices.

OPEC boosted production to 29.9 million barrels a day in March, up 5.2 percent from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The group raised its output target by 500,000 barrels a day on March 16 and said it would consider another 500,000 barrel increase.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 19, 2005 10:39 EDT