May 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., the world's biggest automaker, and Ford Motor Co., the third largest, today will likely say sales fell in April as they lost market share to Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co.

GM's sales probably declined 6.3 percent and Ford dropped 4.1 percent, according to the average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The companies are losing business even as vehicle sales are projected to increase to an annual rate of 17 million cars and trucks in April, from 16.6 million a year ago.

The declines may put added pressure on GM and Ford to reduce costs, slash production and unveil models that are more attractive and fuel efficient. Falling sales led to a first- quarter loss at GM and a 38 percent drop in profit at Ford. Shares of each company have slumped more than 32 percent this year.

``They're just having a really hard time gaining any kind of momentum in 2005,'' Global Insights analyst Rebecca Lindland said in an interview. ``It's really disappointing.''

Toyota, which has raised U.S. sales from the year-ago month in 24 of the last 25 months, may boost sales 14 percent in April, according to an estimate by Edmunds.com, a Santa Monica, California-based data service.

The analysts estimates are adjusted to reflect an extra ``selling'' day for potential sales this April versus a year earlier. Changes calculated from unadjusted actual sales will be about four percentage points higher than the adjusted.

Toyota, Nissan Gain

Toyota, based in Toyota City, Japan, is benefiting from demand for Prius hybrids, Scion small cars and redesigned Avalon sedans and Tacoma pickups. The company also got a boost from Lexus, the best-selling luxury brand in the U.S. A new GS sedan went on sale in February, and deliveries of the Lexus RX 400h, a hybrid sport-utility vehicle, began April 18.

``They've gone into this year with a tremendous amount of momentum, and that continues,'' said Jim Sanfilippo, executive vice president of Automotive Marketing Consultants Inc. in Warren, Michigan.

Nissan's sales may have surged 33 percent in April, according to Edmunds.com after gaining 24 percent in 2004. Demand for new versions of the Tokyo-based company's Pathfinder and Xterra SUVs have been among the biggest sources of new sales so far this year.

``Nissan is going to have a record April,'' said Rebecca Lindland, a forecaster with Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. Nissan is Japan's No. 2 automaker, behind Toyota.

GM cited falling U.S. sales, mainly SUVs, for a $1.1 billion first-quarter loss, its biggest quarterly loss since 1992. The company is no longer offering an earnings forecast for the balance of the year. GM shares have fallen 32 percent to $27.16 this year through yesterday and are trading at 12-year lows.

Declines at Ford

Ford's falling sales contributed to a 38 percent decline in first-quarter profit, to $1.21 billion. The company is now forecasting a likely second-quarter loss and doesn't expect to make money on its car business this year. The company's shares have dropped 37 percent this year, to $9.22.

Ford has lost market share in the U.S. for 25 consecutive months. ``We now expect full-year market share in the U.S. to be down compared to a year ago,'' Chief Financial Officer Don Leclair said on an April 20 conference call.

Leclair cited a ``shift away from traditional SUV segments'' for the decline. Sales of the company's Explorer mid-size sport- utility vehicle, the best-selling SUV in the country, fell 25 percent during the first quarter. The Expedition large SUV declined 27 percent, and the Mercury Mountaineer, a twin of the Explorer, fell 24 percent.

Higher Gas Prices

Ford said in an April 27 statement that sales of its crossover vehicles and small SUVs totaled 80,376 in the first quarter, a 52 percent rise from a year ago because of the new Freestyle wagon and Mariner small SUV plus the gasoline-electric hybrid version of the Escape small SUV.

``Rising gasoline prices may finally have begun to affect the mix of U.S. vehicle sales in early 2005,'' said David Healy, an analyst with New York-based Burnham Securities Inc., in a written preview of April sales.

Chief Executive William Clay Ford Jr. said at an April 20 news conference that the company's ``biggest opportunity for share'' will be when three new mid-size car models, Fusion, Milan and Zephyr, ``hit the road.'' Those cars won't be in dealer showrooms until October.

GM also is being hurt by declining SUV sales. Sales of the Chevrolet TrailBlazer, a competitor to Ford's Explorer, fell 23 percent during the first quarter. Its GMC Envoy twin dropped 30 percent, and the similar Buick Rainier fell 39 percent.

Analyst                   GM      Ford    Chrysler   SAAR

Daniel Ward               -4%    -3.5%     +2%       17.2
 (UBS Securities)
John Casesa               -8%     -3%     -1%        17
 (Merrill Lynch)
David Healy               -9%     -6%     +1%        17.2
 (Burnham Securities)
Ron Tadross               -4%     -4%      +2%       17.2
(Banc of America)
Bloomberg Economists      N/A      N/A     N/A       16.7
 (Average estimate)

AVERAGE:                  -6.3%   -4.1%     +1%      17

Company estimates are percentage changes from the year-earlier month, and the SAAR forecasts, or seasonally adjusted annual rate, are in millions of vehicles. The SAAR average for the Bloomberg economists is based on 15 forecasts, and the average SAAR total is based on 19 forecasts. The analyst estimates are figured on a daily selling rate basis. April 2005 had 27 selling days compared with 26 in April 2004, and analysts adjust their forecast on that basis.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Bill Koenig in Southfield, Michigan at 
wkoenig@Bloomberg.net;
Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at 
aohnsman@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 3, 2005 09:17 EDT