Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise on concern Hurricane Rita will damage production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and refineries in Texas, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Thirty-three of 53 analysts and strategists surveyed, or 62 percent, said oil will rise next week. Eleven, or 21 percent, said prices will fall and 9 forecast little change.

Gulf production has fallen 92 percent because of Rita and Hurricane Katrina, which hit Louisiana and Mississippi Aug. 29, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said yesterday. Producers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. shut oilrigs and at least 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity has closed in Texas.

``Concern that Rita could inflict further injury to an already wounded U.S. oil industry is likely to occupy oil markets next week,'' said Gerard Burg, an economist with Australia National Bank Ltd. in Melbourne.

Crude oil for November delivery has risen 4.8 percent so far this week, to $66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil surged to a record $70.85 on Aug. 30 and traded at $66.18 at 12:03 p.m. Singapore time. Prices have risen 52 percent this year.

Rita, packing winds of 145 miles per hour (233 kilometers per hour), weakened yesterday to a Category 4 storm on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale, close to Katrina's strength when it came ashore. The National Weather Service expects Rita to reach the Texas coast near Houston late today or early tomorrow.

Shut for a Month

The hurricane will shut 7 percent of Gulf oil output and 12 percent of the region's natural-gas production for as long as a month, according to Kinetic Analysis Corp., a Savannah, Georgia- based forecaster. The company accurately predicted the amount of damage to oil and gas platforms caused by Katrina and Hurricane Ivan last year.

Chevron, Exxon, BP Plc, Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Apache Corp. evacuated workers from offshore platforms this week. Exxon has about 100 structures in the Gulf supported by about 550 production workers, spokeswoman Susan Reeves said in an e-mailed statement this week.

Houston-area refineries are vulnerable to flooding and may sustain wind damage from Rita, disrupting output for weeks.

Last week, 22 of 54 respondents, or 41 percent, said oil would rise. Twenty-seven of the past 42 surveys have correctly forecast the market's direction.

Refineries Idled

``With Hurricane Rita apparently headed straight for Houston, I expect Nymex crude futures to rise next week when the market sees'' the storm's aftermath, said Deborah White, a senior energy analyst with Societe Generale Commodities in Paris.

Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, ConocoPhillips, BP and Valero Energy Corp. shut refineries in Texas in anticipation of Rita. Refineries in Texas account for 26 percent of U.S. capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Exxon closed its 557,000 barrels-a-day Baytown, Texas, refinery, the nation's largest, according to a filing with state authorities. Valero, the biggest U.S. oil refiner, shut plants in Texas City and Houston.

About 5 percent of U.S. refining capacity already is shut because of Katrina, which sent U.S. gasoline pump prices above $3 a gallon for the first time.

Oil and gasoline retreated from the all-time highs after the U.S. and other nations tapped emergency stockpiles to make up for disruptions caused by Katrina.

Members of the International Energy Agency agreed Sept. 2 to release as much as 1.28 million barrels a day of crude oil and 683,000 barrels a day of refined products for a month, half of it from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to help ease shortages caused by Katrina.

Fall

Some analysts said damage from Rita will be less than anticipated and that oil will fall.

``I think Rita will be less severe than anticipated, as many expect the worst, and that oil will fall on the news,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.

The IEA said Sept. 15 that it won't expand the release of emergency oil and fuel reserves after an auction of U.S. crude oil met weak demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, agreed in Vienna this week to effectively suspend its quota system for the first time since the 1990 Gulf War. OPEC estimates its members can pump another 2 million barrels a day. The offer of additional barrels starts Oct. 1 and lasts three months.

     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

                    RISE       FALL      NEUTRAL
                     33         11          9

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 23, 2005 00:11 EDT