Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush is likely to name a woman or minority to the U.S. Supreme Court, with options ranging from Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, mistrusted by the political right, to Judge Edith Jones, whose conservative views would provoke a bitter battle with Senate Democrats.

Bush's second pick for the high court, after his selection yesterday of John G. Roberts Jr. to succeed the late Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, presents both an opportunity and a political minefield. To replace Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, Bush can either reach out to moderates or please his political base by seeking to ensure a more conservative court for decades to come.

``The country can be assured that I'll take a good, long look at who should replace Justice O'Connor,'' Bush said today in Washington. ``She'll be there when the court is seated with a new chief justice. And then we'll move deliberately to replace Justice O'Connor.''

The dual court vacancies are the first since 1971, when President Richard Nixon selected Rehnquist and Lewis Powell as associate justices. Bush's decision, coming as he struggles with sagging approval ratings and mounting criticism of his response to Hurricane Katrina and conduct of the Iraqi war, may help define the remainder of his presidency.

``I'm certain that there are a few political advisers in the White House that have a little less hair,'' said Douglas Kmiec, a professor at Pepperdine University School of Law in Malibu, California, and a former Republican Justice Department official. ``This is a chess game and it is important not only what moves you make but when you make them.''

`The White Male Seat'

Bush initially named Roberts, a 50-year-old federal appeals court judge, to succeed O'Connor, who announced July 1 she will retire when her successor is confirmed. With Rehnquist's death, Bush decided to nominate Roberts for the chief justice position, leaving an opening to succeed O'Connor.

Bush said the list of candidates is ``wide open, which should create some good speculation here in Washington, and make sure you notice when I said that I looked right at Al Gonzales so we can really create speculation.'' Cabinet members responded with laughter.

Roberts's confirmation hearings, originally scheduled to start today, will begin Sept. 12. Rehnquist's funeral is planned for tomorrow.

As Bush considers candidates for the second opening, many conservatives and moderates say O'Connor's slot should be given to another woman or a minority. ``Roberts has soaked up the white male seat,'' said Manuel Miranda, executive director of the Third Branch Conference, a Washington-based coalition of 200 conservative and libertarian groups.

First Hispanic

Senator John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas and member of the Judiciary Committee, said Bush probably will name a woman or minority to O'Connor's seat, continuing ``the sort of diversity'' that has characterized his other presidential appointments.

If the president decides on a minority, one possibility is former Deputy Attorney General Larry Thompson, 59, who is now general counsel at Purchase, New York-based PepsiCo Inc. Adding Thompson would put two black justices on the court for the first time. Bush's father named Justice Clarence Thomas, Thompson's longtime friend, to the court in 1991.

More likely would be a decision to put the first Hispanic on the court. Bush, who places a high premium on loyalty, could accomplish that by nominating Gonzales, his longtime confidant and legal adviser. That might satisfy moderates and even a few liberals.

Criticism of Gonzales

Gonzales, 50, has drawn criticism from conservatives who say he may be too moderate on issues such as abortion rights and affirmative action. In 2000, while a member of the Texas Supreme Court, he joined a decision allowing a girl to bypass the state's parental notification requirement for minors seeking an abortion.

Gonzales was confirmed as attorney general in February over the objections of Democrats, who said the torture of suspected terrorists at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq stemmed from government policies he helped devise as White House counsel.

The son of Mexican-American migrant farm workers, Gonzales served as general counsel to then-Texas Governor Bush, who later appointed him to the state's highest court and brought him to Washington as White House counsel.

Pepperdine's Kmiec said the attorney general would be Bush's best choice among minorities and women. ``I don't think among the favored categories of gender and ethnicity, beyond Al Gonzales, the president has an obvious choice,'' Kmiec said.

Female Candidates

Among the female candidates, nominating Jones would most please social conservatives while mobilizing Democrats to defeat the nomination. She was put on the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 1985 by President Ronald Reagan.

``Edith Jones would in all likelihood trigger strong opposition,'' Kmiec said.

Jones, 56, is a frequent guest speaker at the Federalist Society, a self-described conservative legal research foundation in Washington. She also openly criticizes Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion nationwide.

In a 2004 opinion, Jones wrote that ``if courts were to delve into the facts underlying Roe's balancing scheme with present-day knowledge, they might conclude that the woman's `choice' is far more risky and less beneficial, and the child's sentience far more advanced, than the Roe court knew.''

Some conservative activists say Bush shouldn't be afraid of a fight with Democrats and liberal interest groups.

55 Votes

``The president has got 55 votes and probably a couple of Democratic votes as well,'' said Sean Rushton, executive director of the Committee for Justice, a Washington-based group set up in 2002 to defend Bush's judicial nominees. ``He has a lot of leeway here.''

Echoing other conservatives, Rushton added, ``It's certainly positive to have people who are not white males, but not if it comes at the expense of the right judicial philosophy.''

More politically palatable may be 5th Circuit Judge Edith Brown Clement, 57, who was a finalist for the job the last time when Bush selected Roberts. She also might be an intriguing nomination because she hails from New Orleans, where thousands may have died in the floodwaters of Hurricane Katrina.

Clement was appointed to the appeals court by Bush after serving from 1991 to 2001 as a U.S. District Court judge in the Eastern District of Louisiana. Some Bush supporters question whether Clement would be a reliable conservative vote.

Other female candidates include 5th Circuit Judge Priscilla Owen, 50; Judges Reena Raggi, 54, and Sonia Sotomayor, 51, both of the New York-based 2nd Circuit; Judge Susan Black, 61, of the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit; and Judge Karen Williams, 54, of the Richmond, Virginia-based 4th Circuit.

One veteran political observer, former Republican Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, said in an interview yesterday that Bush should focus on finding a highly qualified candidate, like Roberts, and not worry about the politics.

``He picked a guy who's almost unassailable,'' Simpson said of Roberts. ``Hopefully, they'll go get another one.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net; Robert Schmidt in Washington at rschmidt5@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 6, 2005 12:39 EDT