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Bush Approval Falls After Iraq Abuses, Pew Poll Says (Update1)

By Richard Keil

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating fell to 44 percent, a 4-point drop, following revelations that U.S. soldiers abused Iraqi prisoners, a poll by the Pew Center for the People and the Press shows.

The percentage of Americans who think the nation is headed in the right direction is at 33 percent, an eight-year low, and 61 percent said they are dissatisfied with how things are going, according to the Pew survey. In an election match-up, Democratic presidential candidate and four-term Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leads the president by 50 percent to 45 percent.

`It is a close race, and at this stage it is all about feelings about the incumbent, and Bush has been hurt by recent events in Iraq,'' Carroll Doherty, editor of the Pew poll, said. ``Until there is some good news in terms of organizing a government, or the casualty count goes down, this thing is going to be a major problem for the president.''

Fifty-one percent of the 1,800 adults Pew polled May 3-9 after publication of photographs of abuses at Abu Ghraib prison said the Iraq war is going poorly; 46 percent said it was going well. As of today, 565 U.S. military personnel have been killed in action in Iraq, 454 of them since May 1, 2003, when Bush declared an end to major combat.

About 76 percent of those surveyed said they had seen photos of prisoner abuses at the prison. In January, 70 percent of those questioned by Pew said they thought the war was going fairly well or very well.

Kerry's lead over Bush shifts to a 46 percent to 43 percent advantage when independent candidate Ralph Nader is included. The poll has an error margin of 2.5 percentage points.

`Clearly Vulnerable'

Bush's standing among independent voters is declined to 44 percent from 55 percent in February, Pew said.

``Bush is clearly vulnerable -- he would lose a referendum on his presidency today,'' Thomas Mann, a presidential scholar at the Brookings Institution, said last week. ``I would rather play Kerry's hand at this stage than Bush's.''

``These numbers are very discouraging for an incumbent, particularly in an election year,'' said Mark Rozell, a government professor at Catholic University. ``Bush is taking a big hit in the polls over handling of the Iraq prison abuse scandal. The question is whether this scandal gets worse and continues to erode Bush's support.''

Public approval of Bush's job performance has declined since January, and Kerry is widening his lead over Bush on which candidate is best able to handle issues such as jobs, the economy and health care, Pew said.

Voter Anxiety

Bush's job approval was 58 percent in January, with 35 percent disapproving. Now, 48 percent disapprove of the president's performance.

Bush, 57, holds a 44 percent to 41 percent edge over Kerry, 60, on the question of which man is better able to handle the situation in Iraq. The president also has an edge of 52 percent to 33 percent over which can best deal with the war on terrorism.

Kerry has double-digit leads on issues such as health care (51 percent to 29 percent), education (50 percent to 35 percent) and the economy (48 percent to 38 percent), education (50 percent to 35 percent) job situation (50 percent to 35 percent).

``Economic growth in 2004 cannot undo the anxiety from health care coverage and costs, low wage growth, a soft labor market over the last three years, and exploding budget deficits,'' Mann said. ``And it's hard to see how Iraq can be stabilized by November.''

Republicans said that regardless of the trend in the polls, they still expect a tight contest.

``We've always believed from the very beginning that this is going to be a close race,'' Republican National Committee Chairman Marc Racicot said in a conference call with reporters before release of the Pew Poll. ``Polls are not going to drive this president.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Richard Keil in Washington at dkeil@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 12, 2004 16:18 EDT