By Carlos Torres
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, while holding close to a seven-month low, evidence businesses are gaining confidence that sales will improve, according to a survey of economists before a government report today.
Claims rose to 312,000 for the week ended Nov. 19 from the prior week's 303,000 that were the fewest since April, according to the median forecast of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would bring the average for this month to 314,000 new claims, down from 351,000 in October.
Businesses are firing fewer workers amid evidence the economy continues to grow, even with gasoline prices 18 percent higher than last year. A drop in fuel prices this month has lifted consumer sentiment, a separate report from the University of Michigan is projected to show, bolstering forecasts that consumer spending won't falter.
``We are starting to see steady improvement in labor market conditions,'' said Anthony Chan, a senior economist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio. ``The economy is turning out to be a lot more resilient in the face of higher interest rates and record gasoline prices.''
Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 298,000 to 321,000 claims for the week. The report is scheduled for release by the U.S. Department of Labor at 8:30 a.m. Washington time. The report is due a day earlier than usual because government offices will be closed Nov. 24 for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Also today, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to rise to 81 this month from 74.2 in October, The report is scheduled for release at about 9:45 a.m. A preliminary report earlier this month showed a reading of 79.9.
Gasoline Prices
An average of 324,000 people a week filed claims for unemployment benefits through August, before Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast. An average of 343,000 a week were filed last year.
Claims tend to fall as payrolls rise. A report next week on November payrolls is forecast to show the economy added 214,000 jobs, the most in four months, according to the median estimate in a preliminary Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Payrolls rose by 56,000 last month, less than half the median economists' forecast, after dropping by 8,000 in September.
With the average price of a gallon of gasoline at $2.38 this month compared with $2.02 this time last year and the government projecting heating bills will be as much as $500 higher this year than last, Americans are going to depend on rising wages to keep spending, economists said.
``The income generated by traditional sources, the labor market, is probably doing just fine and is providing a nice base for future spending,'' said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.
Coffee Surge
So far, consumers haven't let up. Starbucks Corp., the largest U.S. chain of coffee shops, said last week that fourth- quarter profit rose 21 percent on sales of espresso drinks and new breakfast and lunch offerings. Chief Executive Jim Donald added 570 stores, the most ever, as the company expanded in states such as California and Texas.
``We think that the number of stores that we can continue to put up will continue to grow,'' Donald said in a Nov. 17 interview. ``I don't see'' any sign consumers are turning cautious, he said.
The National Retail Federation yesterday raised its holiday sales forecast to 6 percent from an estimate of 5 percent two months ago, citing strong October gains and the decline in gasoline prices.
Not all businesses are doing as well. General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the largest U.S. automakers, announced plans within days of each other to reduce payrolls.
General Motors said Nov. 21 it would close 12 North American plants and cut 30,000 jobs, 20 percent more then proposed earlier this year, in a move to lower expenses. Ford said last week it would eliminate 4,000 salaried jobs in North America as part of a restructuring plan to be announced in January.
To contact the reporter on this story: Carlos Torres in Washington ctorres2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 23, 2005 00:04 EST
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