Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush yesterday laid out an Iraq war strategy that, while outlining conditions for an eventual U.S. exit, is likely to keep the U.S. engaged there for years to come, both critics and supporters said.

Bush defined what he said was a ``clear strategy for victory,'' touting the ``real progress'' of Iraqi security forces. He said U.S. troops could begin to come home as Iraqis take the lead in the fight against insurgents, while giving no answer to when that may occur.

The strategy also assumes ``the continued support of the American people,'' according to a White House report issued in conjunction with the speech. That backing has been draining away in the face of a persistent insurgency and mounting U.S. casualties and costs.

``I anticipate that we could have some troops in Iraq indefinitely,'' Republican Senator Richard Lugar, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said after Bush's speech.

The U.S. military has plans to reduce the number of U.S. personnel in Iraq -- now about 160,000 -- by 40,000 to 60,000 over the course of 2006 if political and military progress continues. In his speech yesterday at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, Bush made no promises on troop reductions.

Instead, he sought to counter public and congressional skepticism, saying that the U.S. is making advances in training Iraqi security forces. Yesterday's speech was the first in a series Bush will give to outline his strategy before Iraqis vote Dec. 15 for a new parliament.

`Critical' Step

Getting Iraqis to take over security roles is a ``critical'' step toward reducing U.S. responsibilities, Bush said, and they ``have made real progress.''

He cited 120 Iraqi army and police battalions ``in the fight against terrorists,'' including 40 that are taking leading roles; 30 army battalions taking ``primary control'' in their areas of operations; standardized training for army and police officers.

``Iraqi units are growing more independent and more capable,'' Bush said. ``They are defending their new democracy with courage and determination.''

Bush repeated his vow that U.S. troops won't be pulled out of Iraq on ``artificial timetables set by politicians in Washington.'' The decision will be based on advances by the Iraqis and the judgment of U.S. military commanders, he said.

``We will never accept anything less than complete victory,'' Bush said. ``Our goal is to train enough Iraq forces so they can carry the fight, and this will take time and patience.''

Beyond Training

The issue of preparing Iraqi forces goes beyond the numbers of troops and police officers, said James Dobbins, director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, a policy research organization in Arlington, Virginia.

``If Iraqi forces fail it won't be because they are inadequately trained and equipped,'' Dobbins said. ``It will be because they are not responding to a government which is capable of directing them.''

Lugar, who has generally supported the president, said even if the Iraqi forces are capable, the U.S. still will need to ensure that the country has a functioning government and a stable economy that can pay for its own security and rebuild the infrastructure. Otherwise, Iraq is at risk of being split up among competing Shiite, Sunni and Kurd factions.

``The transfer of authority is not simply a numerical one in which a number of competent people are built up,'' he said.

The president needs to consult more with lawmakers on his plan, Lugar said, and Bush will have to ``spell that out some more in subsequent speeches that he has promised.''

Critics

On a day when most lawmakers were out of town on congressional recess, Lugar was one of the few Republicans who held a news conference after Bush spoke. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, an Illinois Republican, and a few others offered statements of support. Democrats lined up immediately after Bush's speech to criticize it.

``The president added some more details, but they didn't add up in my view to a compelling plan that will lay out a clear, achievable objective,'' Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, said in an interview. The speech ``didn't tell the American public what they really want to know.''

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, disputed Bush's characterization of the debate over his Iraq policy, saying critics aren't seeking ``an artificial date for withdrawal.''

``None of us has ever suggested that we should run in the face of car bombers,'' Kerry said. The argument is about setting ``an estimated timetable for success which will permit the withdrawal of our troops.''

Troop Levels

Public approval of Bush's Iraq policy has fallen recently. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll taken after his speech yesterday found that 55 percent said Bush's handling of Iraq was poor while 44 percent said it was good. Fifty-five percent said they didn't think Bush has a plan to achieve victory -- although two-thirds of the 606 adults surveyed said they'd heard nothing about Bush's speech.

In one piece of good news for the president, only 35 percent favored withdrawal on a fixed timetable, while 59 percent said troops should be withdrawn only when U.S. goals are met.

In his speech, Bush encouraged the public to read the document his administration released, titled ``National Strategy for Victory in Iraq,'' which also includes links to Web pages that give regular reports.

`Rethinking the War'

``Clearly a lot of Americans have gone through that process of rethinking the war,'' said Chris Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, a policy research organization in Washington, in an interview. ``Support for the war is waning because so much has been spent, and there is so little demonstrable progress to point to.''

The Pentagon said that 2,108 U.S. military personnel have died in Iraq as of Nov. 29, and Bush said there will be ``tough days ahead.''

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost $361 billion since Sept. 11, 2001, for military operations, reconstruction and other expenses, the Congressional Research Service said in an Oct. 3 report.

``The president does face a dilemma here,'' Dobbins said. Gradually drawing down the troops in Iraq ``won't satisfy the desire for an exit strategy,'' he said. Yet if he commits to a timetable, ``the bottom will fall out'' on public support because it would discourage those who back the war.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Roberts in Washington at wroberts@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 1, 2005 10:06 EST