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Schwarzenegger Speech May Boost Republican Television Ratings

By Michael B. Marois

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's address to the Republican National Convention may have drawn more television viewers than Democrat John Kerry's acceptance speech, helping to boost support for President George W. Bush among undecided voters.

Schwarzenegger's speech may boost ratings by 20 percent over the last Republican convention, said Steve Sternberg, director of audience analysis at Magna Global USA in New York. That may propel the Republicans' ratings for the whole convention past the Democrats for the first time in 28 years.

``He's going to draw in a lot of Republicans, and he's going to draw in a lot of Democrats,'' Sternberg said in a telephone interview before the speech. ``People outside of California who have never really heard Arnold Schwarzenegger deliver any type of major speech are going to tune in.''

Schwarzenegger, using his life story to demonstrate America's opportunities, credited Republican policies for helping him achieve his ambition.

``My immigrant dreams came true,'' Schwarzenegger, 57, said in the speech. ``I want other people to get the same chances I did, the same opportunities.''

The Austrian-born Schwarzenegger arrived in 1968 with a duffle bag, $20 in his pocket and barely able to speak English. Thirty-six years later, he is one of two governors to have a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. The other is Ronald Reagan, who was California governor before becoming president in 1980.

The actor-turned-politician was given a prime-time speaking slot at the convention in an attempt to expand support beyond the Republican base and among voter opposed to the party's official positions against abortion rights and gun control.

`Serious Speech'

``This isn't an actor's speech. It's a serious speech from a governor from a large state,'' said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and the Media at California State University, in a telephone interview from her office in Sacramento. ``The Republican party will definitely get a temporary boost from this speech.''

Bush and Kerry are tied for the support of likely voters nationwide with each drawing 48 percent, a poll conducted Aug. 26 to Aug. 29 for the Washington Post and ABC News shows. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Kerry's speech last month drew 25 million viewers and ratings that were 18 percent higher than those for the other three nights of the convention. The last time the Republican convention drew in more viewers than the Democrats was when President Gerald R. Ford was nominated in 1976.

NBC decided not to broadcast the speeches last evening of Arizona Senator John McCain, a former presidential candidate, and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. The networks broadcasted Schwarzenegger's speech.

Full Throttle

About two dozen California Democrats and reporters gathered to watch the speech at the San Francisco home of George Broder, a Democratic political consultant and former aide to U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein when she was mayor of the city. Broder's guests, over California red wines, interjected with jibes as Schwarzenegger spoke.

Treasurer Phil Angelides, who is planning a run for governor in two years, and Leslie Katz, chairwoman of San Francisco Democrats, organized the party. Angelides criticized the notion that Schwarzenegger is a moderate, pointing to his budget proposals to cut health care programs and raise college tuitions.

``What we saw tonight was Arnold Schwarzenegger coming out - - and he came out full throttle as a George Bush Republican,'' Angelides said after the governor finished speaking. ``Both of them will go to the ends of the Earth to protect the wealthiest of this nation.''

Katz said, ``It's clearly an attempt to display Arnold Schwarzenegger to rally all the undecided voters -- particularly those who haven't read the platform.''

`Girlie Men'

Schwarzenegger's speech was punctuated by his definition of Republican ideals.

``If you believe that government should be accountable to the people, not the people to the government, then you are a Republican.''

The governor then went on to cite nine beliefs, from individualism to educational accountability, following each with ``then you are a Republican.''

Schwarzenegger responded to the criticism of Kerry and other Democrats about the loss of 1.1 million jobs since 2001, saying, ``Don't be economic girlie men.'' The phrase refers to a term used in a skit on NBC's Saturday Night Live about bodybuilders who are Schwarzenegger fans. Schwarzenegger this summer used the term to describe opponents of his budget plans in the state Legislature.

California State's O'Connor said, ``Many people want to know why wacky Californians elected this guy and this speech gives them reasons. It really does provide them with a lot of information about him.''

Below are the television ratings for U.S. households and the average number of viewers who tuned into the Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1960. Each rating point represents 1 percent of the 109 million U.S. households with televisions.


               Democrats                Republicans

     Year      Rating/Viewers           Rating/Viewers

     1960      29.2  13,216,000         28.0  12,596,000
     1964      28.8  14,695,000         21.8  11,130,000
     1968      28.5  16,200,000         26.4  15,000,000
     1972      18.3  11,400,000         23.4  14,400,000
     1976      25.2  17,400,000         31.5  21,900,000
     1980      27.0  20,700,000         21.6  16,500,000
     1984      23.4  19,500,000         19.2  16,200,000
     1988      19.8  17,400,000         18.3  16,200,000
     1992      22.0  20,500,000         20.5  20,000,000
     1996      17.2  16,418,000         16.5  15,756,000
     2000      15.3  15,380,000         13.9  14,042,000
     2004      14.3  15,537,000

     Source: Magna Global USA analysis of Nielsen Media
Research Inc. data.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael B. Marois in Sacramento, California at 1612or mmarois@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 1, 2004 00:44 EDT