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Bush Approval Falls After Iraq Abuses, Pew Poll Says (Update4)

By Richard Keil

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating fell to 44 percent from 48 percent in April, following revelations that U.S. soldiers abused Iraqi prisoners, a poll by the Pew Center for the People and the Press shows.

The percentage of Americans who think the nation is headed in the right direction is at 33 percent, an eight-year low, and 61 percent said they are dissatisfied with ``the way things are going in this country,'' the Pew survey said. In an election match-up, Democratic presidential rival John Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, leads Bush by 50 percent to 45 percent.

``It is a close race, and at this stage it is all about feelings about the incumbent, and Bush has been hurt by recent events in Iraq,'' Carroll Doherty, editor of the Pew poll, said. ``Until there is some good news in terms of organizing a government, or the casualty count goes down, this thing is going to be a major problem for the president.''

For the first time, a majority of 51 percent said the Iraq war was going poorly. Forty-six percent of the 1,800 adults Pew polled May 3-9 after publication of photographs of abuses at Abu Ghraib prison said the war was going well. As of today, 565 U.S. military personnel have been killed in action in Iraq, 454 of them since Bush declared major combat over on May 1, 2003.

About 76 percent of those surveyed said they had seen photos of prisoner abuses at the prison. In January, 70 percent of those questioned by Pew said they thought the war was going fairly well or very well.

Kerry's lead over Bush shifts to a 46 percent to 43 percent advantage when independent candidate Ralph Nader is included. The poll has an error margin of 2.5 percentage points.

`Clearly Vulnerable'

Bush's standing among independent voters is declined to 44 percent from 55 percent in February, Pew said.

``Bush is clearly vulnerable -- he would lose a referendum on his presidency today,'' Thomas Mann, a presidential scholar at the Brookings Institution, said last week. ``I would rather play Kerry's hand at this stage than Bush's.''

``These numbers are very discouraging for an incumbent, particularly in an election year,'' said Mark Rozell, a government professor at Catholic University. ``Bush is taking a big hit in the polls over handling of the Iraq prison abuse scandal. The question is whether this scandal gets worse and continues to erode Bush's support.''

Bush's job approval was 58 percent in January, with 35 percent disapproving. Now, 48 percent disapprove of the president's performance, Pew said.

Security, Domestic Issues

``We need a new course in Iraq not for politics, but for the safety of our troops and the goals of our mission, which are now in jeopardy,'' Kerry spokesman David Wade said.

Bush holds a 44 percent to 41 percent edge over Kerry on the question of which man is better able to handle the situation in Iraq. The president also has an edge of 52 percent to 33 percent over which can best deal with the war on terrorism.

``The president's steady leadership is going to stand in sharp contrast to John Kerry's indecisiveness and pessimism,'' Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt said in an interview after the Pew poll's release. ``We've always said that this race is going to be close.''

Kerry, 60, has widened his lead over Bush, 57, on which candidate is best able to handle issues such as jobs, the economy and health care, the poll reported.

Kerry has double-digit leads on issues such as health care (51 percent to 29 percent), education (50 percent to 35 percent) and the economy (48 percent to 38 percent), education (50 percent to 35 percent) job situation (50 percent to 35 percent).

Voter Anxiety

``Economic growth in 2004 cannot undo the anxiety from health care coverage and costs, low wage growth, a soft labor market over the last three years, and exploding budget deficits,'' Mann said. ``And it's hard to see how Iraq can be stabilized by November.''

``The current international environment is bad for Bush, and the poll numbers reflect growing pessimism and concerns,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. ``He'd likely lose if the election were held today. But we are still five months out, and circumstances could be very different then.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Richard Keil in Washington at dkeil@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 12, 2004 17:49 EDT