Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose above $46 a barrel in New York on speculation a referendum in Venezuela on Hugo Chavez's presidency will disrupt shipments from the fourth- largest supplier to the U.S.

Venezuela's government and opposition groups have warned that violence may break out on Sunday no matter which way the vote goes. ``If Venezuela enters into a period of instability, I don't see a ceiling to prices,'' said Rafael Ramirez, the country's oil minister. Fighting in Iraq and a legal battle between Russia and OAO Yukos Oil Co. may limit supply.

``The oil market is exceptional because we have a supply disruption premium built into the price,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``This has been a rough week, with everything from hurricanes, to problems at Yukos and fighting in Iraq.''

Crude oil for September delivery rose $1.08, or 2.4 percent, to close at $46.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since oil began trading in New York in 1983. Prices reached $46.65, an intraday record. Prices surged 6 percent this week and are up 51 percent from a year ago. Futures have set intraday records all but one day since July 30.

In London, the September Brent crude-oil futures contract rose $1.59, or 3.8 percent, to close at $43.88 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange, the highest since the contract began trading in 1988. Prices reached $43.92, an intraday record. Prices rose 8 percent this week.

Venezuela was the fourth-biggest source of U.S. crude-oil imports during the first five months of the year, according to the Energy Department. Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Canada were the three biggest suppliers to the U.S., which consumes about a quarter of the world's oil.

Hedging

``We're hedging because so much could go wrong this weekend,'' said Phil Flynn, senior energy trader for Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``The vote will determine the future direction of the country's oil industry.''

Opinion polls by Consultores 21 and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Inc. taken in July showed Chavez improving his standing. Since the referendum was announced in June, Chavez has narrowed the gap with the opposition, making the election too close to call, said analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc.

``The worst possible result would be a close election because that could incite violence,'' Flynn said.

Oil output, exports and revenue were slashed last year because of a nationwide strike to force Chavez from office.

Security Preparations

Felix Rodriguez, vice president of Venezuela's state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, said Aug. 9 the company ordered extra security at its installations to guard against possible violence that a close victory or loss for Chavez may trigger.

``A choice has been made to reallocate funds to social services from investment'' in the oil industry, said Antonio Szabo, chief executive of Houston-based consultant Stone Bond Technologies LP. ``Capacity has declined by almost 1 million barrels a day in six years. It will take many years before PDVSA will get to pre-Chavez capacity.''

Iraqi Fighting

Iraqi and U.S.-led coalition forces have been fighting militiamen loyal to Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr for more than a week in southern cities including Najaf, the site of the holiest Shiite shrine.

Oil output in southern Iraq remains at half its normal level because of loading constraints at its two Persian Gulf export terminals, an official said yesterday, without providing details.

Venezuela and Iraq are the third- and seventh-largest producers within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last month. Together they pump about 4.6 million barrels a day, or 5.5 percent of world supply.

OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, is struggling to keep its main Siberian unit running after the government froze its bank accounts.

The Justice Ministry may seize and sell Yuganskneftegaz, which accounts for 60 percent of Yukos's oil output, as Yukos struggles to pay a 2000 tax bill amounting to $3.4 billion, the largest in Russian history.

Refinery Fire

BP Plc, the world's second-largest oil company, said its refinery in Whiting, Indiana, was still operating after an explosion and fire that injured three employees.

The explosion was in a refinery unit at 6:20 a.m. local time, BP spokesman Ronnie Chappell said in an interview from London. The rest of the 420,000 barrels-a-day capacity refinery is operating as normal.

Gasoline for September delivery rose 4.87 cents, or 3.8 percent, to close at $1.3468 a gallon in New York, the highest since June 1. Futures were 42 percent higher than a year earlier.

Rising energy prices are becoming a U.S. campaign issue. Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry said record high oil prices will cost 435,000 U.S. jobs by next year. President George W. Bush's campaign called for Congress to pass his energy legislation.

``When we have gas prices going through the roof, the Americans I've met don't think we've turned the corner,'' Kerry said in remarks prepared for delivery at a campaign stop in Springfield, Oregon. ``This is bad news for their wallets, and even worse news for our economy. America can do better.''

Bush and Kerry have each proposed tax credits for companies that develop oil and alternative energy and for customers who buy fuel-efficient vehicles. Bush would allow drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which Kerry opposes.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 13, 2004 16:24 EDT