Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first day in four in New York on concern that delays in the resumption of output at U.S. platforms and refineries after Hurricane Katrina will strain the ability of producers to meet demand.

A government report today may show U.S. crude stockpiles fell the most since Hurricane Ivan struck a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey. Five refineries remain shut and U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico is 57 percent below normal. Oil is rebounding from a $5 slide since the International Energy Agency announced the release of emergency supplies last week.

``Companies haven't assessed the damage fully and it may be that refineries stay shut for months,'' said Bruce Evers, an oil analyst at Investec Securities in London. ``The European Union is moving crude and products to the U.S., but at some point it's going to have to replace that, leading to higher demand in a marketplace that is already very tight.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 75 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $65.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where it was up 49 cents at 10:31 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract fell 2.4 percent to $64.37 a barrel, the lowest close since Aug. 18. Oil has slipped 8.5 percent from a record $70.85 on Aug. 30, after Katrina struck.

The hurricane was the most powerful storm to batter the Gulf coast since 1969. Refinery shutdowns prompted President George W. Bush to urge Americans to save gasoline as shortages developed and prices jumped to records at the pump. Katrina may slow U.S. economic growth by as much as 1 percentage point over the rest of the year, the Congressional Budget Office said yesterday.

`Difficult' Situation

``The loss of crude and refining capacity will make the situation very difficult this winter,'' said A.F. Al-Hajji, energy economist and professor at Ohio Northern University. ``Oil prices will stay high for the foreseeable future.''

Average regular-grade gasoline pump prices in the U.S. yesterday fell to $3.03 a gallon from $3.042 a gallon the day before, according to the AAA motorist group. Prices across the nation reached a record $3.057 a gallon, on average, on Sept. 2. Yesterday, the highest average price was $3.383 in Washington D.C. That was offset by prices of less than $2.75 in Alaska, Louisiana and Mississippi. Prices averaged $3 to $3.05 a gallon in states including Indiana, Michigan, and West Virginia.

``There are real concerns about the outlook for supply,'' Investec's Evers said. ``Demand as yet hasn't been materially affected by high prices. Americans are still happy driving their gas-guzzling vehicles.''

Crude prices may stay close to $65 through mid-2006, he said.

Shrinking Stockpiles

U.S. crude supplies probably fell by 7.7 million barrels the week ended Sept. 2, according to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts. That would be the largest drop since a 9.1 million barrel fall in the week ended Sept. 17 last year after Hurricane Ivan blew through the Gulf of Mexico.

Brent crude for October added 68 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $63.57 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange.

Oil in New York has gained 52 percent in the past year. Crude and gasoline prices slid the past three days after the IEA's 26 member nations committed to making available about 2 million barrels of oil and fuel per day for 30 days to help meet U.S. demand. Gulf oil producers have so far restored 570,000 barrels of daily production lost to the storm.

The 15 percent decline in gasoline prices since the IEA announcement last week is ``preposterous'' given the lack of vessels to move the cargos, said Chris Mennis, owner of oil trader New Wave Energy in Aptos, California. The U.S. is already importing 1.5 million barrels of finished products a day using 90 to 150 ships a month, he said.

Chevron, Exxon

The cost of shipping gasoline and other oil products from Europe to the U.S. has more than doubled since Katrina struck as traders hired tankers to haul cargoes to the U.S.

``Where are we going to find another 30 to 60 ships?'' Mennis said.

While there will be some extra cargos from Europe, the closure of Chevron Corp.'s Pascagoula refinery, Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Chalmette plant, Murphy Oil Corp.'s Meraux facility and ConocoPhillips' Belle Chasse site will cut daily gasoline production by about 500,000 barrels for at least the rest of the month, Mennis said.

Gasoline for October delivery rose 3.53 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $2.0575 a gallon in after-hours trading. September gasoline touched $2.92 a gallon on Aug. 31, the highest price since trading began in 1984.

Gasoline Supplies

U.S. gasoline supplies, already 3.1 percent lower than their five-year seasonal average, probably fell 6.3 million barrels last week, according to the analyst survey. Supplies of distillate, including diesel and heating oil, probably fell 1.9 million barrels. That would be their first drop in 16 weeks.

The U.S. Energy Department will release the figures at 10:30 a.m. Washington time.

IEA members will make available 1.28 million barrels a day of crude oil and 683,000 barrels a day of refined products, including 369,000 barrels of gasoline, 190,000 barrels of middle distillates and 38,000 barrels a day of fuel oil, the agency said in an e- mailed statement yesterday.

The Paris-based agency, founded in November 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo, coordinates energy policies of its member nations, including the release of stocks during emergencies. The group organized the release of supplies just once before, during the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

The Energy Department has lowered its forecast for U.S. oil demand growth this year because of surging fuel prices. Consumption will rise 100,000 barrels a day, or 0.5 percent, to 20.83 million barrels, according to the department's post-hurricane recovery scenario. This is down 60,000 barrels from a month ago, the department said yesterday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alejandro Barbajosa in London at abarbajosa@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: September 8, 2005 05:33 EDT