April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush will use his first news conference this year to outline plans for Iraq after uprisings this month killed 70 coalition soldiers and 700 Iraqis and kidnappings prompted Russia and France to advise their citizens to leave the U.S.-occupied country.

Bush, whose voter support slid to 43 percent in a Newsweek magazine poll last week from 47 percent in March, will address the U.S. and take questions from reporters at 8:30 p.m. in Washington, the third prime-time television appearance of his presidency.

``This war is a potential nightmare'' for Bush, said John Mueller, author of ``War, Presidents and Public Opinion'' and a political science professor at Ohio State University.

U.S. support for Bush's policies in Iraq fell 7 percentage points to 44 percent in a CNN/Time magazine poll released April 9. Senator John F. Kerry, 60, a four-term senator from Massachusetts and the Democratic candidate for president, increased his support to 50 percent in Newsweek's nationwide survey April 8-9 from 48 percent in March as Bush, 57, lost ground.

Bush, who held his last formal news conference Dec. 15, must reassure the nation that he has a strategy for curbing the violence in Iraq and a plan for democracy, said George Grayson, a professor of government at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.

Two Fronts

U.S.-led coalition forces are fighting on two fronts, against southern Shiite Muslim cities and Sunni-dominated Fallujah, west of Baghdad. Resistance fighters in Iraq are holding about 40 hostages from 12 nations, with Italian, Russian, Japanese and Chinese nationals among those kidnapped since last week.

The escalation of violence prompted the U.S. to delay a planned reduction in American troop strength to 115,000 by June from about 130,000 now.

``We're at a critical period in Iraq, and the president looks forward to talking to the American people and updating the American people where we are in Iraq right now and where we're headed,'' White House spokesman Scott McClellan said yesterday after the news conference was announced by Bush.

The Newsweek poll found 57 percent thought the U.S. did the right thing by taking military action in Iraq. The survey, conducted for the magazine by Princeton Survey Research Associates, is based on interviews with 1,006 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Polls showed an erosion of support for Bush on security issues even before the Iraqi uprisings.

`Critical' Slippage

A Pew Research Center survey of 290 adults on April 1-4 showed approval of his handling of national security and terrorist threats dropped to 53 percent, from 65 percent in January.

The CNN/Time poll showed Bush's approval rating fell to 49 percent, the lowest in that survey since he took office in January 2001. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points. The U.S. holds its presidential election on Nov. 2.

``The slippage in the polls is very critical,'' said Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who ran Bob Dole's 1996 campaign against President Bill Clinton. ``The erosion in polls is based on the evening news, and it's wearing down people.''

Iraqi police and soldiers were supposed to assume an increasing share of the security burden from the U.S. and its allies, allowing the coalition force to be reduced. Instead, U.S. Central Command General John Abizaid said he will ask Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld for two more brigades -- about 10,000 soldiers -- of ``strong, mobile combat capability'' to fight the uprisings.

`Beginning to Hurt'

Kerry said Bush has been ``inept'' in handling the transition to self-rule in Iraq and failed to recruit more international partners to give an infant government legitimacy.

The increased violence in Iraq ``is beginning to hurt'' Bush, said Evans Witt, who conducts polls for Newsweek as president of Princeton Survey Research International. ``People are saying he doesn't have a clear plan. Some people are saying bring the troops home. Bush's ratings are suffering.''

The Iraqi unrest isn't necessarily a win for Kerry because he ``can't beat Bush on matters of national security,'' said Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University in Washington. ``George Bush can beat himself through policies that go awry, producing American dead with no clear end in sight and no good objectives.''

Bush may also face questions tonight about the commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. The panel, created by Congress, has heard public testimony from Secretary of State Colin Powell, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and other senior officials on the administration's handling of intelligence before the terrorist attacks.

Warning in Memo

Bush agreed to allow Rice to testify in public before the commission after initially refusing, saying it would undermine the ability of presidential aides to freely advise the chief executive. Rice's testimony followed that of former White House anti-terrorism adviser Richard Clarke, who said last month the administration failed to heed warnings from him and the CIA about the growing al-Qaeda threat before the attacks.

The White House on April 10 released an intelligence memorandum dated Aug. 6, 2001, entitled ``Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.,'' that said terrorists might be preparing for hijackings in the U.S. The memo also said followers of Osama bin Laden, including some American citizens, had lived in or traveled to the U.S. for years and kept a ``support structure that could aid attacks.''

Bush said yesterday the memo contained no specific warnings and showed that the Federal Bureau of Investigation was ``doing its job'' keeping track of the threat.

War on Terror

The president's handling of the war on terrorism garnered 51 percent approval among registered voters in an Associated Press-Ipsos Public Affairs survey of 1,001 adults conducted April 5-7.

Bush maintains majority support on national security because the issue is broader than Iraq, ``dealing with how people feel and the war on terror,'' said John Samples director of the Center for Representative government at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research group based in Washington.

Bush stresses national security at almost every appearance and called himself ``a war president'' in a Feb. 8 interview on NBC television's ``Meet the Press.''

``Given the choice between a madman and defending the country, I will defend America every time,'' he told voters in El Dorado, Arkansas, last week, as he has in more than a dozen speeches from Charlotte, North Carolina, to Santa Clara, California, since early March.

Democrats such as Senator Edward Kennedy, 72, of Massachusetts last week compared the occupation of Iraq to the unsuccessful U.S. military intervention in Vietnam from 1964 to 1973. The Department of Defense says 607 American troops have died in the Iraq war, compared with 58,193 in Vietnam.

Kerry's Approach

Kerry, who was elected to the Senate in 1984, advocates a broader international role for stabilizing Iraq and has pledged to solicit money and troops from overseas if elected.

He said yesterday that if he were president now he would go ``directly to the United Nations.''

``I would be prepared to turn over to the UN the authority for the political reformation of Iraq and the reconstruction of Iraq,'' Kerry told students at the University of New Hampshire. ``I would hold on to the military security of Iraq, but the absolute prerequisite to getting more people involved is to be prepared to share the authority and the responsibility.''

The UN is prepared to send aid workers to Iraq after the U.S.'s planned June 30 handover of power to Iraqis. Yet UN spokeswoman Marie Okabe said yesterday ``the security situation is of the utmost concern, and any decisions on the return of staff would be based on security assessments.''

`It's a Mess'

``It's a mess,'' Lauro Baja, the Philippine ambassador the UN, told reporters.

``Kerry doesn't have a real solution, either, but he benefits politically,'' said Mueller, the Ohio State professor. ``He's a non- Bush.''

For Bush, ``the barometer to watch is how Republicans continue to support the president,'' said Reed, the Republican political consultant.

Republican Senators John McCain of Arizona and Richard Lugar of Indiana say the U.S. needs to send more troops to Iraq.

``I was over there last August, and I talked to sergeant majors and captains and colonels and others, and there was no doubt in my mind when I came back that we needed more troops in Iraq,'' McCain said Sunday on ``Meet the Press.''

Bush must reassure the nation that the U.S. has a strategy for bringing democracy to Iraq in a successful conclusion, said Grayson, the College of William and Mary professor.

``We're increasingly on the defensive in Iraq,'' Grayson said. ``Above all, he's got to say `I'm in charge here, and I know where we're going, and this is my blueprint.'''

To contact the reporter on this story: Roger Runningen in Washington rrunningen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 13, 2004 14:28 EDT