Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co.'s third-quarter earnings may be reduced by at least 14 cents a share if a strike by machinists against the world's No. 2 commercial-airline maker isn't resolved by the end of the month, analysts said.

A 30-day strike would delay delivery of 30 planes, reducing revenue by about $2.1 billion, D.A. Davidson & Co. analyst JB Groh said. Boeing, whose union representing 18,300 machinists struck on Sept. 2, was expected to earn 90 cents a share this quarter on $14.7 billion in sales, the average estimate of at least 11 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

The dispute over pension and medical benefits presents the first major challenge to new Chief Executive Officer James McNerney and comes amid the strongest commercial-plane market in almost five years. The machinists, who make and assemble aircraft parts, have struck Boeing six times in the past 57 years, the average walkout lasting about two months, according to union data.

``You've got a new CEO who doesn't want have his first order of business to be buckling to a union,'' Groh said. ``And on the other hand you have guys that know things are better than three years ago. This could go on for quite a while.''

Boeing was expected to deliver 85 aircraft this quarter, with an average price of $74 million, Groh said. With commercial jet production halted, earnings may be cut by 14 cents a share if the strike continues through September, he said.

In 1995, members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers walked out for 69 days. A similar strike this time might cost the Boeing 15 cents to 20 cents a share in the second half of the year, Prudential analyst Jared Muroff said.

Cancellations Unlikely

Boeing declined to comment on the profit and delivery outlook, spokesman Charles Bickers said. Orders from Asia and the Middle East are helping the Chicago-based company, which McNerney took over July 1, close the gap in commercial deliveries with European rival Airbus SAS.

The strike is unlikely to result in cancellation of current orders, said Paul Nisbet, an analyst at JSA Research in Newport, Rhode Island. Revenue from delayed deliveries will appear in later quarters, he said.

``Deliveries will go down to a trickle very quickly and then stop altogether,'' said Nisbet, who has a ``buy'' rating on the stock. ``But all the orders they have now will be there when the strike is over. What they lose this quarter will be gained in the next one or next year.''

Shares of Boeing fell 53 cents to $64.50 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday. They've risen 25 percent this year. Boeing had net income of $456 million, or 56 cents a share, on revenue of $13.2 billion in the third quarter last year.

Union `Surprise'

Boeing's final offer to the machinists raises their pensions by 10 percent to $66 a month for each year of service and increases some medical costs. Workers were seeking a 33 percent pension-payment increase from the current $60.

The proposed three-year contract mostly covers workers mainly in the Seattle area and some in Portland, Oregon, and Wichita, Kansas. No new contract talks are scheduled, said union spokeswoman Connie Kelliher and Boeing's Bickers.

``This strike could go well into fourth quarter because there is such a divide between what the union is looking for and what Boeing is willing to provide,'' Nisbet said. ``The union may be in for a surprise. I see Boeing willing to ride it out three to four months if necessary.''

To contact the reporter on this story: James Gunsalus in New York at jgunsalus@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 8, 2005 00:58 EDT