Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Finland's Martti Ahtisaari, Irish rock star Bono, U.S. Senator Richard Lugar and former Senator Sam Nunn are frontrunners to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize, researchers and bookmakers said.

Singer Bob Geldof, Save the Children and the Salvation Army may also be on the secret list of 199 nominees, said researchers including Stein Toennesson, director of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, and Espen Barth Eide, of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The winner of the 10-million-krona ($1.3 million) prize will be announced by the Oslo-based Norwegian Nobel Committee Oct. 7.

Lugar and Nunn may be honored for their work in campaigning for nuclear disarmament. The committee may also wish to mark the 60th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by giving the prize to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of survivors, the researchers said.

``An award to Nunn and Lugar would emphasize a different route to disarmament,'' Toennesson said. ``Preventing weapons of mass destruction from becoming available on the black market and being bought by terrorists has not been emphasized in the war on terror.''

Toennesson had UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter as top contenders when they won the prize in 2001 and 2002, respectively.

Alice Springs, Australia-based bookmaker Centrebet gave Nunn and Lugar a 5 to 1 chance of winning the prize and held Finnish peace broker Ahtisaari, a former president, as the favorite to win with 7 to 2 odds on Sept. 28.

Peace Accord

Ahtisaari may be recognized for his role in brokering a peace accord between the government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement through his Crisis Management Initiative, the researchers said.

In third place, Bono and Geldof were given a 6 to 1 chance of winning. Both singers campaigned for third-world debt relief at the Group of Eight Summit in July. Geldof also organized the 1985 Live Aid concert and this year's Live 8 concert to raise awareness and money in the fight against poverty.

``They could win for using untraditional methods to raise awareness about poverty and AIDS in Africa,'' Barth Eide said. ``However, the committee may want to give the prize a more traditional focus, and arms control is incredibly important and has been overlooked for too long.''

Muslim World

The committee could pick ``someone from outside the West, perhaps from the Muslim world,'' Zdzislaw Lachowski, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said in an interview. Other researchers have mentioned Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who backed Iraq's first election in 50 years this January.

Researchers familiar with the committee and nomination process make annual predictions of the nominees and their chances of success.

The peace prize was established by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel in his will in 1897 and first awarded in 1901. Nobel's will also set up prizes for achievements in literature, chemistry, medicine and physics. These are handed out by the Stockholm-based Nobel Foundation.

Australians Barry J. Marshall and J. Robin Warren won the medicine award for their discovery of the bacterium Helicobacter pylori and its role in gastritis and peptic ulcer disease, the foundation said today in a statement. The winner for physics will be announced tomorrow and chemistry on Oct. 5. The recipient of the literature prize will be published at a later date.

Economics Award

The winner of an economics award, established in memory of Alfred Nobel by Sweden's central bank, will be made known on Oct. 10. Each prize is worth 10 million Swedish kronor.

The Dec. 10 peace award ceremony in Oslo, attended by the Norwegian Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik and the royal family, is followed by a concert that's broadcast around the world and hosted by international celebrities. Last year Oprah Winfrey and Tom Cruise hosted the event.

Norway, home to 4.6 million people, is trying to make a name for itself as a peace broker in international disputes in Sri Lanka, Israel and Palestine. Last year's prize to Kenyan environmentalist Wangari Maathai sparked concern among Norwegians that the committee's broader definition of peace would dilute the prize's significance.

``There is some pressure on the committee now to be more traditional,'' Toennesson said. ``It would be unwise of them to award now to someone not directly working with peace.''

Other contenders may include Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, who were nominated by U.S. Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain for their work in promoting democracy and civil rights in the former Soviet states.

Candidates may also include Oxfam and other organizations working to help victims of the Dec. 26 tsunami in Asia or groups fighting the spread of AIDS. Human rights activists such as Chechnyan lawyer Lida Yusupova or Chinese dissident Rebiya Kadeer may also be considered, the researchers said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bunny Nooryani in Oslo at bnooryani@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 3, 2005 06:16 EDT