Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co.'s plan to close manufacturing plants and introduce new models may not be enough to halt a 10-year slide in business in the U.S. in 2006.

Ford, the world's third-largest automaker, has seen its share of the U.S. market dwindle to 18.6 percent, down 7.1 percentage points since 1995. The company will likely lose almost another point in 2006, according to the average forecast of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Ford's ``new product isn't enough, and it has to be compelling'' to succeed, said Joe Langley, an analyst with CSM Worldwide, a consulting firm in Farmington Hills, Michigan.

Models such as the Ford Taurus are being phased out while the new Ford Edge and Lincoln MKX ``crossover'' wagons won't go on sale until the fourth quarter. General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp., the world's two biggest automakers, will release at least 17 new vehicles combined in 2006.

Ford executives have pledged this month to end the slide -- without giving a timeframe. Last year, each point of share represented about 170,000 sales in the U.S.

The Dearborn, Michigan, automaker yesterday said it would cut as many as 30,000 jobs and close seven assembly plants in North America by 2012 as it adjusts its manufacturing presence to reflect shrinking sales. Ford also promised to offer bolder designs to win back customers. The North American unit has lost money in five of the past six quarters.

``We're not bereft of new product,'' Executive Vice President Mark Fields, the architect of the restructuring plan, said in an interview yesterday. In 2006, the company will have a full year of sales for the Ford Fusion, Mercury Milan and Lincoln Zephyr sedans, which were introduced in October, he said.

Help

Ford will introduce ``freshened'' versions of its Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator sport-utility vehicles, Fields said. The vehicles ``will help us in stemming the market-share loss,'' he said.

Analysts from consulting firms CSM Worldwide, Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts; and Edmunds.com, the vehicle-pricing Web site in Santa Monica, California, which also analyzes industry trends, project a 1 percent decline for Ford. IRN Inc. in Grand Rapids, Michigan, forecasts a drop of 0.5 percentage point to 0.8 percentage point.

Ford's U.S. market share has tumbled from a high of 25.7 percent in 1995 to 18.6 percent in 2005, according to Autodata Corp. of Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. In the same period, Toyota City, Japan-based Toyota has increased its U.S. share from 7.3 percent to 13.3 percent last year. Forecasts by Global Insight and CSM call for Toyota's U.S. share to reach at least 14 percent in 2006.

Sales Chief Retires

Ford today announced that its North American sales chief, Steve Lyons, 57, is retiring, effective March 1, after less than a year in the position. He will be replaced by Cisco Codina, 54, currently head of the company's customer service division.

In 2005, Ford saw sales of profitable sport-utility vehicles drop, including a 29 percent decline by the midsize Explorer SUV. Explorer sales in the U.S. hit a 15-year low in November after the introduction of a redesigned model. GM's TrailBlazer deposed Explorer as the top-selling SUV in the U.S. Sales of F-Series pickups also fell, by 4 percent to 901,463. It was the second consecutive year Ford sold more than 900,000 F- Series trucks.

Initial sales of the Fusion have been stronger than anticipated, Ford says. ``The Fusion will help them out but it's only going to slow down the loss,'' said IRN auto analyst Erich Merkle.

Under Pressure

The Fusion will be under pressure from the new Toyota Camry, as well as the similarly sized Nissan Altima and Hyundai Motor Co.'s Sonata, Langley said.

``They'll get a full year of Fusion sales, but it's coming at a time when the Camry is coming out, and Altima arrives later in the year,'' Langley said. ``The new Sonata has been a little slow, but Hyundai is going to push that model hard this year.''

Ford has ``to educate the consumer because all the names are new,'' Rebecca Lindland, an analyst at Global Insight, said of the Fusion, Milan and Zephyr. ``It's marketing unfamiliar products to people. If it's an unknown nameplate, it's not as likely to get looked at and researched'' by buyers, she said.

CSM's Langley said several Ford models will have less demand this year. ``There's not much overtime at F-Series plants,'' he said. ``Full-size SUVs are in a bad situation going into this year. The Ranger is dying on the vine. The Explorer has been a non-event.'' The Ranger is a small pickup truck, whose sales fell 23 percent in 2005.

Under Pressure

Sales of Ford trucks are under pressure as competitor GM brings out its new line of full-size SUVs and pickups in 2006. GM, based in Detroit, this year begins selling revamped versions of its large trucks, including the Escalade, Suburban, Tahoe and Yukon SUVs and Avalanche, Sierra and Silverado pickups.

GM also has the new Outlook crossover utility vehicle for its Saturn line, and the Saturn Aura midsize sedan and Sky roadster.

``For Ford this year, it's kind of the game dodge ball, and they're it,'' Langley said. ``Everyone is throwing products their way, and taking shots at them.''

Ford also will lose some models this year.

The company's Lincoln LS sedan is being discontinued. The Taurus sedan, which still was Ford's top-selling passenger car in 2005 after a 21 percent decline in sales, will go out of production this year, United Auto Workers union officials in Atlanta said last year. The Atlanta plant that makes the car is being closed as part of yesterday's restructuring announcement.

Fading Bull

Ford didn't confirm the end of the Taurus before Yesterday. The company currently sells the car only to rental-car companies and corporate fleets. The model is being replaced by a combination of the Fusion and the larger Five Hundred, which went on sale in 2004. Ford sold 196,919 Taurus cars last year in the U.S.

``I don't know what they can do without giving the cars away,'' Merkle said. ``My real concern is their product pipeline isn't near what it should be.''

Guido Vildozo, an analyst with Global Insight, estimates Ford will lose at least one additional point of market share in the U.S. this year, with sales falling about 7.5 percent.

Jesse Toprak, industry forecaster for Edmunds.com, expects Ford's market share to fall by about 1 percentage point this year and each year through the end of the decade.

Profit, Share

One analyst, David Healy of Burnham Securities Inc., says Ford needs to watch profit as well as share.

``Over the next couple of years, they may decline some more from where they were in 2005, but I don't see a dramatic drop in market share because they have a pretty good portfolio of new models, cars and crossovers, coming,'' Healy said.

``They are losing a lot of sales of midsize and large SUVs and trucks, and replacing them with less-profitable cars,'' Healy said. ``They could stabilize or even increase market share, and still see profit continue to drop.''

Ford ``has assumed flat market share in order the achieve'' it target of returning North American auto operations to profitability by 2008, Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said in a report today. ``Until such time as market share stabilizes and core automotive earnings improve substantially, we believe that Ford will likely trade sideways.''

Shares of Ford rose 8 cents to $8.40 at 4:16 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. In the past 12 months, Ford's shares have fallen 37 percent, and Toyota's have risen 45 percent.

Ford yesterday reported net income of $1.99 billion for 2005. Toyota, in its business year that ended March 31, 2005, had net income of 1.17 trillion yen ($10.9 billion), the highest profit ever reported by an automaker.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bill Koenig in Southfield, Michigan, at wkoenig@bloomberg.net Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at aohnsman@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 24, 2006 17:37 EST