By Alejandro Barbajosa
Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose for the sixth day in seven, extending a gain to record highs in New York, as concern mounted that OPEC and other producers have limited potential to compensate for disruptions to supply.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised output by 1.4 percent in July to the highest in 25 years, a Bloomberg survey showed. Oil jumped yesterday after OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said further production gains won't be immediate. New York prices reached $44.28 a barrel today.
``Demand remains very strong, there's a limited amount of spare capacity and the market is a bit too paranoid about potential supply disruptions,'' said Craig Pennington, the head energy analyst at Schroders Plc in London. ``Unless we see some evidence of actual disruptions, it's unlikely we'll see $50.''
Crude oil for September delivery rose 4 cents to $44.19 in electronic after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It closed above $44 for the first time yesterday since the contract was introduced in 1983.
Brent crude oil for September settlement rose 10 cents to $40.74 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange at 9:48 a.m. local time after rising as high as $40.82. The intraday record of $40.95 was reached on Oct. 10, 1990.
Oil has gained partly because of concern shipments may be disrupted from OPEC members such as Venezuela, Iraq and Nigeria, and other producers, including Russia's biggest exporter, OAO Yukos Oil Co.
Winter Peak
Oil traders ``are convinced that OPEC can't possibly meet fourth-quarter demand even if we don't suffer supply losses from Yukos, Venezuela or Nigeria,'' Deborah White, an oil economist at SG Economic Research in Paris, said in an e-mail.
OPEC produced an average of 29.71 million barrels a day in July, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. It was the highest since an average of 30.72 million in 1979, according to U.S. Energy Department figures.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, can add another 1 million barrels a day of output as needed to the 9.5 million barrels a day it's pumping, an official said yesterday.
Oil's recent gains have been driven by concern about attacks on Iraqi pipelines and potential disruptions to exports from Russia and OPEC members that are pumping near capacity. Oil shipments on supertankers from the Persian Gulf rose to a three- month high in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
`Incremental Supply'
Oil output in Nigeria, Africa's largest producer and the fifth-largest supplier to the U.S., is often disrupted by labor disputes and ethnic and political violence. A six-day shutdown last month at Total SA's operations in Nigeria helped boost world oil prices that were already close to a record.
Venezuela's Sutiss union will lead a nationwide strike if a referendum Aug. 15 recalls President Hugo Chavez, Globovision television reported Saturday, citing the union's president, Ramon Machuca. Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest oil producer.
In Russia, Yukos is embroiled in legal fight with the government over back taxes. The company says paying the tax claim could bankrupt it.
``While prices at the current level are a concern, they are not at a level where they will stunt economic growth considerably,'' said Kirby Daley, vice president of Societe Generale Securities (North Pacific) Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The real concern is whether or not production can be increased to temper the rise.''
An Energy Department report today will probably show that U.S. inventories fell last week, a Bloomberg News survey indicated. Supplies declined by 1 million barrels from 300.5 million the week before, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 12 analysts. Supplies in the week ended July 30 were 8.4 percent higher than a year earlier.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alejandro Barbajosa in London at abarbajosa@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 4, 2004 05:03 EDT
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